Keir Starmer Odds Plunge As Labour Edge Towards Election Victory
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Betting sites have shortened their odds on Sir Keir Starmer being the UK’s prime minister after the next election following a stunning round of local election results for Labour this spring.
Labour made gains across England this May at the expense of the Conservatives, who lost more than 470 seats in a major blow to PM Rishi Sunak’s hopes of staying in power past this parliament.
The UK is due an election by January 2025 at the latest and Labour are cruising in the polls.
Mr Sunak insists that the local election results – if mapped out at a general election – wouldn’t deliver the overwhelming majority Labour expect.
Yet political betting sites reckon the UK’s main opposition party is on course for a big victory, with Sir Keir seemingly destined for No 10.
In fact, so short are the Starmer odds that some UK bookmakers are running out of room for shortening his price much further.
Starmer Odds
Unibet were the first to push Sir Keir’s price as low as 1/10 to be prime minister after the next election. The likes of BetUK and BetMGM have swiftly followed. The widest price right now is 1/6 – odds that carry an 85.7% probability.
What’s more, Sir Keir carries the largest share of the market with a third of all bets placed on his head.
In comparison, Mr Sunak is priced at 8/1 to be PM after the next UK general election and more people are backing Boris Johnson over him.
The bookies can sometimes be wrong but these prices, coupled with Labour’s 20-point lead in the polls, seem fairly nailed on.
The big question for Sir Keir is whether he can maintain that lead over the coming months, or whether events out of his control could bring the Tories back into contention for electoral victory.
Can Labour Lose The Election?
Right now, Labour are 1/8 to win the most seats at the next election, and 1/7 to hold a majority. That seems pretty likely when you consider their poll lead.
However, the odds of a Labour minority or a Labour-Lib Dem coalition are floating around 5/1. A Tory majority is currently out at 16/1.
Looking at the polls, Labour are on course for victory. Yet there are factors outside of Sir Keir’s control that could affect those odds.
The first is the Tory party leadership. Rishi Sunak has staved off a rebellion for now but there are plenty of backbench rebels circling.
If he cannot get key targets such as migration figures and inflation under control then rumbling of discontent will begin to surface.
The Conservatives have a habit of deposing their leaders and a challenge to the PM could be forthcoming. If this happens then Tory MPs will sense the possibility of closing the poll gap with a new leader in charge.
Then there is the timing of the next election. Mr Sunak was never realistically going to go for a spring vote because public opinion of the Tories remains very low.
Summer is difficult due to the school holidays, meaning an election between October and December seems most likely.
Labour just have to keep their head down over the coming months and they should be home and dry. Yet Sir Keir will have to deal with a hostile media and keep his own party in check over the summer.
Labour have a habit of tearing itself apart from the inside and there is dissatisfaction among certain ranks about Sir Keir’s leadership.
By trying to bridge across the divide and capture centrist Tories, Sir Keir risks alienating the left of his party.
For now Sir Keir has managed to straddle the two sides of his party and keep everything in check. The challenge ahead is to maintain relative harmony within Labour while also pinning the Tories down to that 20-point poll deficit.
Do this and Labour will be in government come the autumn.
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