Cheltenham Tips: Our Best Bets for Day 1 At The Festival
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Our in-house horse racing expert Dean Ryan will take us through race by race tips at the Cheltenham Festival 2024.
A long standing member of the Gambling.com sponsored and much loved Racehour podcast and a veteran of the Cheltenham Festival since his first appearance at the track in 1989 when Desert Orchid famously won the Gold Cup.
“It’s looking to be a numerically sparse Cheltenham Festival this year. Small fields but competitive puzzles to solve. It is hopefully going to pay to ignore the obvious where you can; but if Willie Mullins gets on a roll we will all be in trouble trying to find value over the next four days!”
“I will attempt an alternative view, all the good things can’t possibly win, and if they do then you don’t need a tipster to find them for you. Expect the Irish to dominate, and rightly so. Let battle commence.”
Supreme Novice's Hurdle - Cheltenham 1.30pm - Mistergif 11/1 Each-Way
We have a field of 11 set to go to post for the opener that will of course deliver the Cheltenham roar for the first time this week, minus the best novice so far, Ballyburn, who heads to the first race on Wednesday.
Willie Mullins has six of the field and heads them up with Tullyhill (jumping issues), Mystical Power (debut at Ballinrobe in May) and four others with projected starting prices of 12/1 or bigger on horse racing betting sites.
Of the main pair, Mystical Power is preferred, the breeding is knockout; Annie Power and Galileo as parents, the efforts on the track so far are good and surely a Grade 1 winner in waiting. It could well come here under Mark Walsh in the famous JP McManus silks.
The Nicky Henderson form of late would seem to have Jeriko Du Reponet playing catch-up.
If he were to win, it’s a good sign that you can have faith in the trainer’s entries across the other 27 races, but I’d be wary in testing that first race up.
Ben Pauling, however, is flying and Tellherthename is interesting for each way players at huge odds, but whether it can come forward enough to trouble the Irish runners is a big leap into the dark.
Slade Steel and Firefox have both bumped into Ballyburn en route to the Supreme, the former getting well beaten and the latter actually scoring over the anointed one at Fairyhouse, where perhaps they enjoyed plenty in favour to do so cheaply.
It’s still a solid form line to consider, and whilst Slade Steel has come here just to avoid Ballyburn, Firefox was always considered a Supreme runner by Gordon Elliott and connections.
Whilst Mystical Power is probably the one at the top of the market, Mistergif is the selection for the alternative view.
This will actually be a 13th race under rules for the five-year-old, campaigned in France as a juvenile, nine races on the flat and three so far over hurdles.
First run for Willie Mullins was a stroll around Limerick in January and a wide margin victory. It would help if the heavens opened a little more and made it a real test as he will enjoy bad ground.
Should that transpire, this experienced horse is a big player at an each-way price, where you want your question marks about a selection to be compensated with a decent price.
Selection - Mistergif 11/1 each-way
Selection - Mistergif 8/1 each way, without Mystical Power, 3 places available with many leading bookmakers
Arkle Chase - Cheltenham 2:10pm - Gaelic Warrior 7/2
I doubt the Arkle make-up we face on Tuesday would have been as many expected a few months ago. Marine Nationale and Facile Vega have flirted with banker suggestions since they tussled at Cheltenham last year.
Sadly through injury for the former and poor form for the latter, Willie Mullins sends Gaelic Warrior (jumps to his right) and Hunters Yarn (doesn’t jump great) alongside his much loved February in Leopardstown specialist, Il Etait Temps, to carry the flag. The market is scared of all of them, and they head the betting in that order.
An old rule here is to back the best hurdler to come good in an Arkle. That’s Gaelic Warrior and arguably he is also the best chaser so far, although we need more evidence from him and the rest of the novices to be certain.
Henry De Bromhead is good with 2m chasers. Quilixios seems to have confused him though with Henry pointing him at 3m and 2m3f in his first two forays over fences this season. A triumph winner at the Festival in 2021 and classy enough to figure, but it’s not often Henry is wrong first time round with a chaser. The hipsters like him though and he fits an alternative view.
Found A Fifty for Gordon Elliott wasn’t quick enough to beat an Irish National winner over 2m4f, but has run two big trials since then at Leopardstown, including narrowly losing to the aforementioned Il Etait Temps. A good yardstick without demanding to be backed.
It's not a great bunch, it’s a good bunch. The UK team headed by JPR One, Master Chewy and Matata wouldn’t usually get a look in. The six-year-old Matata could be the best of them for Nigel Twiston-Davies, running JPR One close last time out.
He seems full of quirks, but the best one he has is to jump very left and go from the front. Neither an issue here, and Sam Twiston-Davies is likely to play catch me if you can from the front end. They probably will though.
Gaelic Warrior will be like marmite for many. But he is the best here, he is not odds on, because he burns fingers for a living, but he is backable at the prices. The alternative view is that he will probably lose ground jumping right handed, but still have enough to get home on top.
Matata playing the loose cannon hare in front is another way to tackle the Arkle.
Selection - Gaelic Warrior 7/2
Selection - Matata without Gaelic Warrior 12/1 each way, 3 places.
Ultima Handicap Chase - Cheltenham 2:50pm- Weveallbeencaught 11/1 Each-Way
A theme this week is less than full fields and that has even affected the handicap contests. The UK usually dominate the Ultima, so an alternative view would be to stick with the Irish runners as they are prominent on with betting apps, but there are fewer than you might think.
Meetingofthewaters will be all the rage. Put up as a Gold Cup horse by David Mullins on the Racehour preview night and then bought by JP McManus, he will surely go off top of the market for team Willie Mullins.
The Goffer for Gordon Elliott was bang in the mix for this race last year and a repeat of that run would be likely good enough to win the race this year. Stumptown is fancied for the shrewd Gavin Cromwell yard. So, what odds an Irish 1-2-3 I hear you ask?
Chianti Classico looks smart and brought along slowly by the master Kim Bailey, this is a long-term plan and he executes well with good horses, which this certainly is. The trainer also saddles Trelawne, who is a quirky and talented, so they will be hopeful of getting involved with one or the other.
Weveallbeencaught is the selection for the alternative view though. Usually, not being trained in Ireland isn't an issue here, as explained. However, his form doesn't seem up to par so far.
What he has done over fences wouldn’t inspire much right now, but connections are at pains to explain the health issues they have had with the horse, and that they are no longer an issue.
Considered good enough to go to Ireland and face off with the best there in Grade 1 company as hurdler, it’s fair to say it didn’t work out and it hasn’t worked out since.
What they do have though is a well handicapped sort, plenty of Cheltenham experiences and if it did click here, when the market is speaking in favour, which it is, that’s a good sign!
Selection - Weveallbeencaught 11/1 each way
Champion Hurdle - Cheltenham 3:30pm - Nemean Lion 28/1 Each-Way
No Constitution Hill has left this race to the very good State Man. He’s 1/3 with the layers, that’s not a working man's price or much of a tip for those that only wanted to bet in the big race of Day One.
Not that it would have been different with Constitution Hill in the race. He’d have been 1/3 or thereabouts anyway.
What comes second, is the big question. Irish Point is having a go here instead of the Stayers Hurdle where he would have been fancied to go close and that’s enterprising from Gordon Elliott.
Iberico Lord has been supplemented by JP McManus, but that’s most likely a swing and a miss, although prize money for finishing in the mix is worth the dice roll. There’s not a lot in here but the race is what it is.
The alternative view is take on State Man and keep three places on side each way, even if you pass one up for the winner.
Nemean Lion is improving, has come through the handicap ranks for Kerry Lee and we haven’t yet seen the very best of him. This is a crack at Grade 1 company and it's deserved after two Grade 2 wins and lumping big weights in tough contests so far.
Rain and more rain will help the cause, but it’s very possible it’s best of the rest here. It will power up the hill and should not be the huge rag odds it currently is to grab second spot.
If anything were to happen to the favourite, then it’s game on for the remainder so we will keep the three places and take an alternative view once again.
Selection - Nemean Lion 28/1 each way
Mares Hurdle - Cheltenham 4:10pm - Telmesomethinggirl 13/2 Each-Way (without Lossiemouth)
Lossiemouth, will she stay this trip of two and a half miles? If she does she will win, and it’s very likely she does stay just fine. She’s odds on, she looks the part and she will be a banker for many. Let’s assume Lossiemouth wins.
Ashroe Diamond is second string for the stable and admirable but is unlikely to get in the way. However, it could well make it a 1-2 for the Mullins yard and they have two others in the field for good measure. It’s not normally sensible to look elsewhere.
That said, Marie’s Rock won this in 2022 and is still a force for Nicky Henderson. Many may remember that Telmesomethinggirl was bang there and looking a winner until coming down, she has been unfortunate to say the least to not collect a big prize to date for Henry De Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore.
She might have to come up short again this year given the emergence of Lossiemouth and that’s no disgrace. But, I sense the yard have got her right again, warmed up nicely over shorter in January, and this would have been a long-range plan once they abandoned a chasing career. Just as well, see previous comments regarding jumping.
Telmesomethinggirl is a backable price without the flashy favourite, and the alternative view is that she will be peaking for this and given an under-the-radar-no-pressure ride.
I can see her performing well and potentially securing some sort of silverware; where coming second is possibly as good as winning.
Selection - Telmesomethinggirl 13/2 each-way (betting without Lossiemouth)
Boodles Juvenile Handicap - Cheltenham 4:50pm - Lark In The Mornin 13/2 Each-Way
Might not be an alternative view to sit this out, but I think it is sensible. So much ability hidden away so far by connections of the 22 runners that it requires a crystal ball to sift through the form we have on offer.
A token call is look at the Prestbury Cup betting market. If the French entry here wins, Milan Tino, that scuppers all correct score options with the leading bookmakers as they are offering various splits of 28 races between Ireland and GB. A French winner adds a third column to the score board and renders all bets in trouble somewhat!
Milan Tino is likely to go off sub 6/1 – yet any other score for the Prestbury Cup can be backed at 6, 7s (Betfred and others) and in one spot at 8/1. Milan Tino is your runner there along with any other wild score they don’t have priced up, which is basically a win overall for the home team, that’s not going to happen.
Taking the 8/1 if you can get it, gives you a favourite at a nice price, perhaps. What wins if that doesn’t though, is a tough question.
Lark In The Mornin looks the biggest and most obvious set up, had more entries in recent weeks than you’d care to mention, and comes here surely capable of plenty more.
JJ Slevin and Joseph O’Brien haven’t hidden the intention to make this 'Plan A' for the season and I’d expect the market to react positively on the day despite the French raider’s claims.
Selection - Lark In The Mornin 13/2 each way
National Hunt Chase - Cheltenham 5:30pm - Embassy Gardens 9/4
Simply put, the finale on the Tuesday is a disappointing six-runner race with two stand out contenders. Corbetts Cross was surely expected to be better than has proved over fences so far. That said he has been good, just not good enough to go aiming at Fact To File and others in the Grade 1’s this week.
Embassy Gardens is a National Hunt Chase horse, everything about him is the typical type you want here, and in the race named now after his granny, Patrick Mullins will be confident of delivering a winning performance.
The alternative view might be to just do the reverse forecast. They are very likely indeed to be first and second, you won’t care too much in which order, you don’t have to get it wrong either, and it’s possible they go off joint favourites with horse racing betting sites.
The view here is that Corbetts Cross, whilst classier than Embassy Gardens, is also full of quirks. Jumping is not error free, and he might be gasping for a breather if they go quick over this trip.
Therefore Embassy Gardens can just deliver a professional no nonsense staying performance that is good enough. Not necessarily an alternative view, but it’s a match race baring mishaps.
Selection - Embassy Gardens 9/4
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