Next UK Election Odds: Betting Market Flees Conservatives For Labour
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UK betting sites see no way back for the Conservatives as the country edges towards a general election, with Labour on course for a hefty majority.
Politics betting fans got a taste of what’s to come at a general election later this year during May’s local elections in England, where the Tories endured a pummeling at the ballot box.
Labour and the Lib Dems were the big victors as the Conservatives lost 474 council seats. Prime minister Rishi Sunak tried to paint a positive light by arguing Labour wouldn’t win a big majority if these results were mapped out across the country, ignoring the fact tactical voting played a huge part in many areas.
Indeed, it is this tactical voting that politics betting sites believe will condemn the Conservatives to a heavy defeat and deliver a Labour government after 14 years in opposition.
So much so that even the chances of a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition are drifting away, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party in full command of the polls.
UK General Election Odds
Politics betting sites expect Labour to deliver a 1997-style victory at the next general election. Their odds of 1/10 for a Labour majority suggest a 91% likelihood. Even a Labour minority government, or a Lab-Lib Dem coalition, is drifting out to 7/1.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, are nowhere to be seen in this market. Mr Sunak’s party were once the favourites to win a majority but Unibet recently pushed them out to 20/1. Those odds carry a 4.8% probability.
Betting data shows us that a third of punters are backing a Labour majority. Interestingly, more bettors (15.8%) believe there will be a Conservative-Reform coalition, compared to 13.8% who are backing a Tory outright win.
The spectre of Reform currently hangs over the Conservative party as voters dissatisfied with the government seek right-wing alternatives. Reform have pooled an impressive 13 percentage points in the latest polls but that has largely been at the expense of the Tories, not Labour.
The UK’s First Past The Post voting system means Reform’s presence could severely harm the election chances of many Conservative candidates, and gift Labour even more constituencies.
The Lib Dems, meanwhile, are targeting Middle England, “One Nation Tory” constituencies where Labour and Reform have little chance. As for Scotland and Wales, the Conservatives face total wipeout.
Who Will Win The Election?
Labour will win this election. That’s what the betting data and polls show us. It’s likely that Mr Sunak will call the vote before 2024 is out, and it’s difficult to see how the Conservatives overturn such a woeful poll deficit before then.
Indeed, Mr Sunak has failed to significantly shift the dial since he succeeded Liz Truss as PM in the autumn of 2022. The Conservatives were polling at 24% back then. They’re now on 23%.
Labour have climbed down from a 52% high but still sit comfortably on 43%. Reform and the Lib Dems will target specific constituencies at the coming election and could both win a handful of seats.
So sure are Labour to win the next election that UK bookmakers are taking bets on how many seats the Conservatives will lose. They currently have 345 MPs with a 47-seat majority. The bookies reckon they could lose more than 200 seats at odds of 2/5.
The odds of them losing between 151 and 200 seats sit at 10/3, while 101-150 is out at 7/1.
This shows just how pessimistic the mood is around the Tory party. They are about to head into an election after 14 years in power and are expected to lose at least two thirds of their MPs.
The make-up of British politics is about to change.
FAQ
When is the next UK election?
The next UK general election must take place before February 2025. UK elections must be held a minimum every five years. However, a snap election can be held sooner than this if two-thirds of MPs agree to it.
How often is there a UK election?
The UK election cycle runs for a maximum of five years, under the royal prerogative. However, elections can be called at any time, so long as there is a two-thirds majority approval among MPs.This happened in 2017 when Theresa May called a snap election, and in 2019 when Boris Johnson sought to push through his Brexit deal.
Is there an election if the Prime Minister resigns?
There is no obligation for Parliament to call a new UK election if the Prime Minister resigns their office. This is because the country votes for a party to govern, rather than an individual. This was the case in 2022 when first Boris Johnson and then Liz Truss resigned as prime minister.
Who will win the 2024 UK election?
The two main parties — Labour and the Conservatives — are likely to dominate the 2024 UK election. The Conservatives have been in power since 2010 and boast a 47-seat majority.Other parties who are likely to run in 2024 include the Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party. There is a possibility the next UK election will be held in 2025.
What are the latest UK politics odds?
UK politics betting odds are in a constant state of flux due to the ever-changing nature of global affairs. Political betting sites offer regular markets for betting on the next Prime Minister, which party will win the next election, and who will be leader of the opposition.
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