Super Bowl LVII Picks: Betting Advice and Analysis
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Bettors have watched the shifts in spreads, totals, and props for the last dozen days. So when the Super Bowl kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET inside Glendale, Arizona's State Farm Stadium, they should have a good idea of where to make their wagers. We're going to dive into what to expect.
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Technology gave us the early opening line of Kansas City, favored by 1.5 points. Currently, that has flipped to Philadelphia by that same margin. With the avalanche of pre-game coverage this weekend, our goal at gambling.com is to keep things neat and concise.
Both teams are 16-3 and have scored 546 points. There are a few similarities but many differences. A subtle line move is possible.
Digging For Those Late Night Line Moves
Again, there always seems to be a late move or three when it comes to the “Big Game.” Remember, the early Over-Under started at 49.5 and then gradually increased to 51.5. Now, that has backed off on some sites, like BetMGM, to 50.5. It may be time to get on that while one can. The chances of one more swing upward are moderate.
Unlike the 24-48 hours opening, the final 24-48 hours will see more subtle changes. Prop numbers will move some but again, do not expect anything too drastic. Barring a significant unforeseen injury, we are where we are.
Nick Sirianni and Philadelphia will use the run to set up the pass. Jalen Hurts runs a variety of plays designed for the quarterback. Add in several solid runners, including Miles Sanders, and Philadelphia has something that Kansas City does not. The Eagles possess an athletic group of linemen on both sides. This figures to pose problems for Philadelphia as the finale moves along.
The idea is to dive deeper into the numbers and decide on a few more picks, along with some friendly tips.
The Getting Late Fast Predictions
Naturally, events and incidents can occur between now and Sunday. Kansas City needs its best players to play the game of their lives on Sunday. It is doable, but we also saw what happened against Tampa Bay. The Chiefs were frustrated at every turn in that game because the Buccaneers’ defense made the plays with, you guessed it, an athletic defensive line and ball hawks.
The Chiefs and Andy Reid are ready to give this everything Kansas City has. Now, the question is what happens when the pace of this contest increases. Can the Chiefs keep up? Will Patrick Mahomes be able to deliver? Does the ankle hold up? It starts as healthy, but no one knows how it will stand up against a relentless and fast Eagles’ defensive front seven.
OK, back to the main course and all the catered food. With those shifts and some moves backward, there are positions to take a shot at. Possible scenarios assert that points could be at a premium early - especially in the first quarter. Also, the second quarter could easily feature a lot of points. Philadelphia scored 24 touchdowns in that 15-minute window. It was undoubtedly its best quarter.
The middle quarters are vital here. Kansas City plays its best football during this time (21 touchdowns in the second and 14 in the third). Its average yards per play is highest then, too. Anytime a team gets up in that 7.5 to 8.5 range, we are talking top-line offenses. One dynamic may be game scenarios. Philadelphia can force Kansas City to up the tempo too much. That could create mistakes and the potential for more points.
The Eagles are one of three or four teams that can execute at or above Kansas City’s level. Philadelphia gets a healthier offensive and defensive line. The line of scrimmage is vital in games like this, so we make the picks below.
- Take the Over at 50.5 points. Teasing up to 51.5 is not worth it.
- Philadelphia at -1.5 points (-110) and -125 on the moneyline for the Eagles to win by at least one possession.
- The first quarter Over has slid to 9.5; pass on that now. That first half Over at 24.5 (+100) may be worth a small wager.
- A fun risk may be Philadelphia Over 30.5 points at +190. Even 27.5 is at +120.
- First scoring play - Eagles Rushing Touchdown - +400
- Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown at +333
- Eagles anytime defensive or special teams touchdown at +500
Thanks again for reading and following us this NFL season. All bets are via numbers from BetMGM and DraftKings.
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