AFL Betting Tips Round 9: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
AFL Round 9 Predictions:
- St Kilda -10.5 points - 1.9 @ PlayUp
- GWS to win - 1.62 @ Ladbrokes
- Adelaide-Brisbane under 167.5 total points - 1.9 @ BlueBet
Starting with a potentially definitive top eight clash between Melbourne and Carlton and ending with Adelaide and Brisbane fighting to get back up off the canvas, Round 9 of the 2024 AFL season has presented many fascinating markets for AFL betting sites around the country.
Just two wins separated the top-eight at the start of the round thanks to three of the top four losing in the last round as well as Essendon and Fremantle enjoying a bit of good form in recent weeks.
This weekend it’s the afternoon games that have piqued our interest from a wagering perspective, and once again we’ve cast our eye over the hundreds of betting markets offered to come up with our three Round 9 best bets.
Hawthorn v St Kilda, Saturday, 1:45pm (AEST)
Betting sites are expecting St Kilda to continue a dominant recent head-to-head history over Hawthorn that has seen them win six of the last seven meetings across all venues.
It will be the Saints’ first visit to Launceston, where Hawthorn won three of their four games last season (defeating West Coast, Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne whilst losing to Adelaide by three points), since Round 6 of 2018.
Despite trailing at half-time in each of their last eight games outside of Melbourne, St Kilda have been able to rally after the half-time break to get wins away to Sydney, West Coast as well as a ‘Gather Round’ victory over Richmond at Norwood Oval.
The Saints are 5-3 when it comes to covering the main pre-match line this season, compared with 3-5 for their opponents, and come into this match with the eighth best defence in the league.
Meanwhile, the Hawks are in the bottom three both for points for (71.5) and points against (96.1) per game this year, with their only two wins coming against out-of-form opponents.
Jack Gunston makes a long-awaited return to the state of Tasmania after a spectacular run of form there in July and August 2022, booting 14 goals across three games played in either Launceston or Hobart.
He picked up his first multiple goal haul of 2024 in his last appearance with a score of 2.4, and has been in the thick of the action early by kicking Hawthorn’s opening goal in two of their last three games - despite starting on the bench last weekend.
There is more than one dollar difference in pricing when it comes to Gunston kicking 2+ goals, so the best place to go is Bet365 for a generous 3.25 at the time of writing.
Best Bet: St Kilda -10.5 points - 1.9 @ PlayUp
Player Prop: Jack Gunston to kick 2+ goals - 3.25 @ Bet365
Essendon v GWS, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)
GWS Giants have a point to prove after a bruising Sydney derby loss to the Swans last weekend that saw head coach Adam Kingsley swearing furiously at his coaching staff after a crucial and costly breach of the 6-6-6 rule that tilted the game out of favour of an undermanned Giants outfit.
Yet to suffer back-to-back defeats in 2024, the Giants also return to the scene of their first loss of the season, when going down to Carlton by 19 points in a reversal of last year’s matchup at the same venue.
They will welcome back Stephen Coniglio and also received some good news late in the week when Tom Green passed a fitness test after an ankle scare against Sydney last week that saw him subbed out of the game for a costly absence.
The Giants hold a perfect 5-0 record as favourites this season thanks to a formidable scoring ability that sees them average 102 points per game in 2024, whilst they’ve come out on top in five of the last six H2Hs.
If Essendon are going to spoil our weekend and pick up their third win from six starts as underdogs this season, they’ll probably need a sizable contribution from big man Kyle Langford.
The forward is averaging 2.5 goals per game in 2024, kicking at least three goals in each of their five wins so far this year.
He’s also on a run of five consecutive appearances at Marvel Stadium with 3+ goals to his name, which points towards another solid performance from him here - hopefully in defeat for our sake!
Best Bet: GWS to win - 1.62 @ Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Kyle Langford to kick 3+ goals - 2.5 @ Bet365
Adelaide v Brisbane, Sunday, 4:00pm (AEST)
Round 9 ends at the Adelaide Oval, where last weekend the Crows picked up their first win from four games at the venue this year with a commanding win over crosstown rivals Port Adelaide.
Head coach Matthew Nicks has publicly cautioned his players not to get ahead of themselves after they won three of their last four matches to jump above last year’s runners-up on percentage, particularly as the Lions won three of the last four H2Hs at the Adelaide Oval.
Rather than attempting to pick a winner in a clash between two inconsistent sides, we’re looking to the continuation of a trend involving both teams, whereby 13 of the 16 games involving either club this season finished under the main total points handicap.
Exchange betting sites have set the mark at 167.5, which is well above the average total points scored and conceded by both clubs this season (153.4 per Adelaide game and 148.8 per Brisbane match).
Charlie Cameron’s output has been well below par so far in 2024 and it’s no coincidence that the team struggles when he does, for some of his best hauls - such as 3.2 against the Demons - were in wins.
But a return to a former home ground could be just the spark he needs, especially as he kicked at least three goals in all but one of his last eight appearances at the Adelaide Oval.
Best Bet: Under 167.5 total points - 1.9 @ Unibet
Player Prop: Charlie Cameron to kick 3+ goals - 3.6 @ Bet365
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