AFL Betting Tips Round 7: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Round 7 Predictions:
- Collingwood to win by 1-39 points - 2.2 @ Bet365
- GWS-Brisbane Under 171.5 total points - 1.9 @ PlayUp
- Sydney -17.5 points - 1.9 @ Unibet
One of the marquee rounds of the 2024 AFL season begins with the rare treat of Wednesday night football as Melbourne and Richmond attempt to make ‘ANZAC Day eve’ their own with a new annual blockbuster fixture.
As a result of ANZAC Day falling on a Thursday this year, Round 7 will be spread over five magnificent days leading up to a potentially one-sided affair between Hawthorn and Sydney at the MCG on Sunday evening.
There were interesting moves in the AFL Premiership markets during the week with Sydney joining crosstown rivals GWS as equal favourites across many AFL betting sites as they joined GWS on a 5-1 record with a thumping post-bye win over Gold Coast.
Reigning Premiers Collingwood also firmed slightly in the markets with their third straight win, this time a second-half bulldozing of top-eight Port Adelaide, demonstrating that they are gradually warming up towards their best.
AFL bookmakers have jam packed their offerings for Thursday’s massive fixture and consequently we’ve taken a look at our best bets for the two ANZAC Day clashes as well as the final game of the round.
Essendon v Collingwood, Thursday, 3:20pm (AEST)
Collingwood ‘did the double’ over the Bombers in both 2023 and 2022 including a thrilling 2023 ANZAC Day comeback that saw them kick seven goals to nil in the final term to overrun their archrivals.
Both teams are coming into this game off the back of winning streaks - three for the Pies and two for the Dons - and with Collingwood and Essendon having 2-2 records as favourites and underdogs respectively this season, this game could well and truly go either way.
Essendon have struggled against the best teams in the competition, though, falling to Sydney and Port Adelaide in 2024 in addition to a 12-game losing streak against the defending champion of the time.
They needed one quarter to get going last week, but beyond that they were simply awesome against a club that demolished Essendon by 69 points earlier this season.
But with the fight that Essendon have shown in the last couple of weeks as well as the last four ANZAC Day clashes, where they either won or kept the margin to less than 15 points, it looks quite safe to take the popular 1-39 point bet if you think Collingwood’s favouritism is justified.
We especially like the 1.87 offered for Brody Mihocek to be a multiple goalscorer given he has done just that in four of his six appearances this year as well as three of the four H2Hs over the previous two seasons.
Best Bet: Collingwood to win by 1-39 points - 2.2 @ Bet365
Player Prop: Brody Mihocek 2+ goals - 1.87 @ Ladbrokes
GWS Giants v Brisbane Lions, Thursday, 7:30pm (AEST)
The second ANZAC Day game takes place in the national capital under lights a fortnight after the GWS Giants fought off a thrilling comeback from St Kilda to win their first and only Manuka Oval outing of 2024.
They faded out in a similar fashion last weekend against Carlton when conceding eight consecutive goals across the second and third quarters after using their above-average efficiency to get themselves into a strong position.
It’s tough to pick a winner at the time of publication with key Giants player Toby Greene set for a crucial midweek tribunal appearance that could play an enormous role in which way this one leans.
Betting sites could not separate the two teams earlier in the week, though the Giants were immediately wound in by about five cents upon news of Jesse Hogan being cleared of a one-game ban.
With pre-match favourites losing five of Brisbane’s six matches so far this year, it’s perhaps a tag that comes with a curse!
Instead, our attention is drawn to the total points mark of 171.5, which is well above the average of 149 points scored and conceded by Brisbane this season and has been cleared in only one of the last 11 games played at Manuka Oval.
Should Greene be ruled out through suspension, it opens up opportunities for his colleagues to pick up some extra goals. Jake Riccardi kicked two and three goals in Rounds 19 and 20 last year when leading forward Hogan was absent for example, and since then he has three multiple goal hauls from his last five games with Hogan alongside him.
There’s a fantastic price available well above the majority of the competition for him to do it against the Lions this week.
Best Bet: GWS-Brisbane Under 171.5 total points - 1.9 @ PlayUp
Player Prop: Jake Riccardi 2+ goals - 1.85 @ Bluebet
Hawthorn Hawks v Sydney Swans, Sunday, 4:00pm (AEST)
Given the disparity on the ladder between Hawthorn and Sydney, which at the beginning of the round was 15 places and four wins, it comes as a bit of a surprise to us to see exchange betting sites giving the Swans a handicap of just 17.5 points even in an away game.
Hawthorn would have no doubt gained a lot of confidence from piling on 113 points last weekend, but it wasn’t exactly against an AFL level opposition, and even that was still below the average score conceded by North Melbourne in 2024 (which is now 120).
They were on a seven-game losing streak spanning two seasons prior to that, and given North Melbourne games are practically freebies nowadays that’s how they should be considered as they look to avenge back-to-back defeats against Sydney by 81 and 41 points.
The Hawks are even on a five-game losing streak at their beloved MCG, whilst Sydney were too good for Collingwood in their first MCG outing of 2024 before falling to Richmond by five points.
Sydney have a 4-2 record at covering the main line this season, in contrast to Hawthorn’s 2-4, and are well ahead of the Hawks for leading metrics such as clearances, inside 50s, marks and shots at goal.
Isaac Heeney has emerged as a standout Brownlow Medal favourite in the first quarter of the season with nine goals an average of 26 touches a game.
Considering he is the only Swan to record 25+ disposals in all six of their matches this season, backing him to do it again looks to be a tremendous play, especially as he remains a better price than teammate Errol Gulden despite producing better numbers on a consistent basis this season.
Best Bet: Sydney -17.5 points - 1.9 @ Unibet
Player Prop: Isaac Heeney 25+ disposals - 1.65 @ Ladbrokes
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