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1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon: Europa League prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Hoffenheim
Europa League
Tomorrow · 19:00 UTC
VS
Prezero Arena

Lyon
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
1899 Hoffenheim
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Lyon
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely foul98K. Machida
189 · CB
189 · CBMost likely tackle96Bernardo
189 · CB
189 · CBMost likely fouled94B. Conté
189 · ST
189 · STMost likely shot85F. Asllani
189 · ST
189 · STMost likely booking77Alejandro Gomes Rodriguez
LYO · ST
LYO · STMost likely SoT68Keito Nakamura
LYO · ST
LYO · STMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
18932.6%DRAW23.8%
LYO43.7%Most likely score1–110.1% · xG 1.59–1.87
Over 1.586.2%Over 2.566.4%Over 3.544.3%Under 2.533.6%BTTS67.5%
InputsClub strength rating 1699 vs 1695 (rating diff 4), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±120 / ±120 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition Europa League, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.59, λA 1.87 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningKNKeito NakamuraLyon · ST
68medium
1+best shout6833% hit2+3717% hit
SoT/90 1.45·Shots/90 2.30
Last 520100
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
CTC. TolissoLyon · CM
60low
1+best shout6068% hit2+1818% hit
SoT/90 1.18·Shots/90 2.21
Last 512010
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
FAF. Asllani1899 Hoffenheim · ST
56low
1+best shout5656% hit2+1813% hit
SoT/90 1.08·Shots/90 2.87
Last 500110
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningFAF. Asllani1899 Hoffenheim · ST
85high
1+8588% hit2+best shout6669% hit
Shots/90 2.87·SoT/90 1.08
Last 503333
Gets his shots off regularly.
ENE. NuamahLyon · ST
85high
1+8577% hit2+best shout6146% hit
Shots/90 3.39·SoT/90 1.06
Last 542603
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
KNKeito NakamuraLyon · ST
82medium
1+8250% hit2+best shout6350% hit
Shots/90 2.30·SoT/90 1.45
Last 520220
Gets his shots off regularly.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningARAlejandro Gomes RodriguezLyon · ST
77high
Cards/90 0.63·YC 3
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
KMK. Machida1899 Hoffenheim · CB
77high
Cards/90 0.78·YC 4
Last 5✕✕✕
His card history is doing the talking.
MMMax Moerstedt1899 Hoffenheim · ST
73high
Cards/90 0.51·YC 4
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningKMK. Machida1899 Hoffenheim · CB
98high
1+9883% hit2+best shout8183% hit
Fouls/90 3.31·YC 4
Last 522342
His card history is doing the talking.
TLT. Lemperle1899 Hoffenheim · ST
89high
1+8978% hit2+best shout5744% hit
Fouls/90 2.75·YC 3
Last 551111
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 25.3: gets away with it.
AHAlex Honajzer1899 Hoffenheim · CM
82medium
1+best shout82no hit data2+45no hit data
Fouls/90 3.93·YC 2
His card history is doing the talking.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningBCB. Conté1899 Hoffenheim · ST
94high
1+9478% hit2+best shout7133% hit
Drawn/90 3.14·Dribbles/90 1.99
Last 511303
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
CTC. TolissoLyon · CM
89high
1+best shout8986% hit2+4841% hit
Drawn/90 2.06·Dribbles/90 0.37
Last 504211
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
LEL. Engelns1899 Hoffenheim · CM
82medium
1+best shout82no hit data2+48no hit data
Drawn/90 2.79·Dribbles/90 0.35
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningBEBernardo1899 Hoffenheim · CB
96high
1+9685% hit2+best shout7254% hit
Tackles/90 2.82·Int/90 1.63
Last 505331
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
WBW. Burger1899 Hoffenheim · CM
94high
1+9482% hit2+best shout6853% hit
Tackles/90 2.53·Int/90 0.69
Last 513211
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
MRM. Rots1899 Hoffenheim · CB
93high
1+best shout9371% hit2+6529% hit
Tackles/90 2.36·Int/90 1.13
Last 531014
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
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Preview build for review, not gambling advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon?
We price 8 player markets for Hoffenheim vs Lyon: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.