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AC Milan vs Atalanta: Serie A prediction, stats and bet builder tips

AC Milan
Serie A
Sun 18 Oct · 16:00 UTC
VS
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Atalanta
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
AC Milan
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Atalanta
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely fouled92A. Cissè
AC · CM
AC · CMMost likely shot90N. Krstović
ATA · ST
ATA · STMost likely tackle87Éderson
ATA · CM
ATA · CMMost likely foul81K. De Winter
AC · CB
AC · CBMost likely SoT66N. Krstović
ATA · ST
ATA · STMost likely booking61P. Estupiñán
AC · CB
AC · CBMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
AC 41.0%DRAW27.8%
ATA31.2%Most likely score1–113.3% · xG 1.41–1.20
Over 1.574.1%Over 2.548.1%Over 3.526.3%Under 2.551.9%BTTS53.5%
InputsClub strength rating 1710 vs 1661 (rating diff 49), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±120 / ±120 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition Serie A, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.41, λA 1.20 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningNKN. KrstovićAtalanta · ST
66medium
1+best shout6671% hit2+2724% hit
SoT/90 1.65·Shots/90 4.44
Last 500104
High shot volume: he tests the keeper most weeks.
GSG. ScamaccaAtalanta · ST
59low
1+best shout5962% hit2+2423% hit
SoT/90 1.39·Shots/90 3.46
Last 511202
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
GRGonçalo RamosAC Milan · ST
57low
1+best shout5750% hit2+2425% hit
SoT/90 1.60·Shots/90 3.69
Last 500021
High shot volume: he tests the keeper most weeks.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningNKN. KrstovićAtalanta · ST
90high
1+9094% hit2+best shout7371% hit
Shots/90 4.44·SoT/90 1.65
Last 501117
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
CPC. PulišićAC Milan · ST
85high
1+best shout8586% hit2+5136% hit
Shots/90 2.92·SoT/90 1.41
Last 512211
Gets his shots off regularly.
GRGonçalo RamosAC Milan · ST
84medium
1+8475% hit2+best shout6263% hit
Shots/90 3.69·SoT/90 1.60
Last 513042
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningPEP. EstupiñánAC Milan · CB
61medium
Cards/90 0.45·YC 8
Last 5✕✕✕
His card history is doing the talking.
CCC. ComottoAC Milan · CM
56medium
Cards/90 0.19·YC 3
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
FTF. TomoriAC Milan · CB
47medium
Cards/90 0.23·YC 8
Last 5✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningKWK. De WinterAC Milan · CB
81medium
1+best shout8186% hit2+3936% hit
Fouls/90 1.57·YC 4
Last 531132
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 12.3: gets away with it.
FKF. KessiéAtalanta · CM
81medium
1+best shout81100% hit2+3925% hit
Fouls/90 1.40·YC 7
Last 51112
His card history is doing the talking.
NKN. KrstovićAtalanta · ST
76medium
1+best shout7671% hit2+5265% hit
Fouls/90 2.29·YC 5
Last 500004
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 14.8: gets away with it.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningACA. CissèAC Milan · CM
92high
1+9271% hit2+best shout6429% hit
Drawn/90 3.07·Dribbles/90 1.19
Last 503101
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
ARA. RabiotAC Milan · CM
88high
1+best shout8888% hit2+4947% hit
Drawn/90 1.77·Dribbles/90 0.65
Last 501101
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
JRJ. RoweAtalanta · CM
81medium
1+best shout8179% hit2+5057% hit
Drawn/90 2.49·Dribbles/90 2.61
Last 542351
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningÉDÉdersonAtalanta · CM
87high
1+best shout8772% hit2+5639% hit
Tackles/90 2.33·Int/90 1.20
Last 500120
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
ARA. RabiotAC Milan · CM
86high
1+best shout8682% hit2+5041% hit
Tackles/90 1.86·Int/90 0.63
Last 501121
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
FTF. TomoriAC Milan · CB
85high
1+best shout8567% hit2+5744% hit
Tackles/90 2.21·Int/90 1.11
Last 510102
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
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AC Milan vs Atalanta: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on AC Milan vs Atalanta?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for AC Milan vs Atalanta?
We price 8 player markets for Milan vs Atalanta: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.