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Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: Bundesliga prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Leverkusen
Bundesliga
Sunday · 13:30 UTC
VS
BayArena

SC Freiburg
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Bayer Leverkusen
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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SC Freiburg
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely shot97P. Schick
BAY · ST
BAY · STMost likely tackle94R. Yamamoto
SC · CM
SC · CMMost likely fouled89R. Yamamoto
SC · CM
SC · CMMost likely booking85Cyriaque Kalou Irié
SC · RW
SC · RWMost likely foul82Y. Engelhardt
SC · CM
SC · CMMost likely SoT80P. Schick
BAY · ST
BAY · STMost likely G+A62P. Schick
BAY · ST
BAY · STMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
BAY57.7%DRAW22.2%
SC 20.2%Most likely score1–110.0% · xG 2.12–1.17
Over 1.584.2%Over 2.563.0%Over 3.540.3%Under 2.537.0%BTTS61.0%
InputsClub strength rating 1678 vs 1639 (rating diff 39), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±120 / ±120 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition Bundesliga, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 2.12, λA 1.17 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningPSP. SchickBayer Leverkusen · ST
62medium
Goals/90 0.75·Assists/90 0.15
Last 521011
Chips in with goals and assists, and red-hot lately (70% G+A in his last 10).
Shot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningPSP. SchickBayer Leverkusen · ST
80high
1+8077% hit2+best shout5159% hit
SoT/90 1.54·Shots/90 3.17
Last 521031
High shot volume: he tests the keeper most weeks.
IMI. MatanovićSC Freiburg · ST
60low
1+best shout6072% hit2+2533% hit
SoT/90 1.20·Shots/90 2.87
Last 514221
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
NTN. TellaBayer Leverkusen · LW
56low
1+best shout5667% hit2+1722% hit
SoT/90 1.09·Shots/90 2.55
Last 510311
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningPSP. SchickBayer Leverkusen · ST
97high
1+9788% hit2+best shout8277% hit
Shots/90 3.17·SoT/90 1.54
Last 544241
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
VBV. BonifaceBayer Leverkusen · ST
90high
1+900% hit2+best shout620% hit
Shots/90 5.07·SoT/90 1.87
Last 53
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
NTN. TellaBayer Leverkusen · LW
88high
1+best shout88100% hit2+4844% hit
Shots/90 2.55·SoT/90 1.09
Last 511411
Gets his shots off regularly.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningCICyriaque Kalou IriéSC Freiburg · RW
85high
Cards/90 0.77·YC 4
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
FMF. MedinaBayer Leverkusen · CB
64medium
Cards/90 0.35·YC 10
Last 5✕✕✕✕✕
His card history is doing the talking.
LVLucas VázquezBayer Leverkusen · CB
63medium
Cards/90 0.26·YC 3
Last 5✕✕✕✕✕
The opponent matchup sharpens the risk.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningYEY. EngelhardtSC Freiburg · CM
82medium
1+best shout8271% hit2+4857% hit
Fouls/90 1.49·YC 9
Last 512020
His card history is doing the talking.
IMI. MatanovićSC Freiburg · ST
81medium
1+best shout8172% hit2+4844% hit
Fouls/90 2.54·YC 4
Last 501021
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 21.3: gets away with it.
RYR. YamamotoSC Freiburg · CM
80medium
1+best shout80no hit data2+42no hit data
Fouls/90 1.31·YC 6
The opponent matchup sharpens the risk.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningRYR. YamamotoSC Freiburg · CM
89high
1+89no hit data2+best shout66no hit data
Drawn/90 2.65·Dribbles/90 0.60
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
AMAfonso MoreiraBayer Leverkusen · CM
86high
1+best shout8671% hit2+5243% hit
Drawn/90 2.61·Dribbles/90 1.15
Last 503101
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
JBJ. BesteSC Freiburg · CM
76medium
1+best shout7682% hit2+4147% hit
Drawn/90 1.93·Dribbles/90 0.73
Last 501221
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningRYR. YamamotoSC Freiburg · CM
94high
1+best shout94no hit data2+65no hit data
Tackles/90 2.00·Int/90 1.20
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
BYBerkay YilmazSC Freiburg · CB
88high
1+best shout880% hit2+600% hit
Tackles/90 2.05·Int/90 0.95
Last 501
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
MCM. CulbreathBayer Leverkusen · CM
87high
1+best shout8790% hit2+6160% hit
Tackles/90 3.52·Int/90 0.88
Last 502213
A tackling machine, he’s everywhere.
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Preview build for review, not gambling advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
We price 8 player markets for Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.