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Bolton vs Middlesbrough: Championship prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Bolton
Championship
Friday · 19:00 UTC
VS
Toughsheet Community Stadium

Middlesbrough
Match status:
We can't preview this one yet.
Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Bolton
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Middlesbrough
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely tackle99A. Morris
MID · CM
MID · CMMost likely foul91R. Pukštas
MID · CM
MID · CMMost likely fouled89Ruben Rodrigues
BOL · ST
BOL · STMost likely shot86W. Lankshear
MID · ST
MID · STMost likely booking66R. Pukštas
MID · CM
MID · CMMost likely SoT58W. Lankshear
MID · ST
MID · STMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
BOL39.7%DRAW27.4%
MID32.8%Most likely score1–113.1% · xG 1.42–1.27
Over 1.575.4%Over 2.550.0%Over 3.527.9%Under 2.550.0%BTTS55.1%
InputsClub strength rating 1500 vs 1534 (rating diff -34), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±150 / ±120 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition Championship, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.42, λA 1.27 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningWLW. LankshearMiddlesbrough · ST
58low
1+best shout5871% hit2+2950% hit
SoT/90 0.89·Shots/90 2.15
Last 520321
Gets into shooting positions.
ACA. Cozier-DuberryMiddlesbrough · CM
52low
1+best shout5263% hit2+2350% hit
SoT/90 1.17·Shots/90 2.51
Last 530023
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
LCLeo CastledineMiddlesbrough · CAM
47low
1+best shout4730% hit2+1710% hit
SoT/90 1.41·Shots/90 2.92
Last 500000
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningWLW. LankshearMiddlesbrough · ST
86high
1+86100% hit2+best shout6586% hit
Shots/90 2.15·SoT/90 0.89
Last 532533
Gets his shots off regularly.
ACA. Cozier-DuberryMiddlesbrough · CM
80medium
1+best shout80100% hit2+5175% hit
Shots/90 2.51·SoT/90 1.17
Last 572148
Gets his shots off regularly.
TCT. ConwayMiddlesbrough · ST
75medium
1+best shout7574% hit2+4537% hit
Shots/90 2.01·SoT/90 0.73
Last 510013
Gets his shots off regularly.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningRPR. PukštasMiddlesbrough · CM
66high
Cards/90 0.22·YC 6
Last 5✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
JNJ. NelsonBolton · LM
60medium
Cards/90 0.25·YC 5
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
SBS. BerhalterMiddlesbrough · CM
59medium
Cards/90 0.28·YC 13
Last 5✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningRPR. PukštasMiddlesbrough · CM
91high
1+910% hit2+best shout670% hit
Fouls/90 2.54·YC 6
Last 520
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 11.5: gets away with it.
SBS. BerhalterMiddlesbrough · CM
83medium
1+best shout8376% hit2+5352% hit
Fouls/90 1.65·YC 13
Last 500201
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
WLW. LankshearMiddlesbrough · ST
81medium
1+best shout8171% hit2+4436% hit
Fouls/90 2.08·YC 4
Last 513110
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 23: gets away with it.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningRRRuben RodriguesBolton · ST
89high
1+best shout8994% hit2+5463% hit
Drawn/90 2.59·Dribbles/90 1.45
Last 522122
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
RPR. PukštasMiddlesbrough · CM
85high
1+best shout850% hit2+580% hit
Drawn/90 2.51·Dribbles/90 1.31
Last 500
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
AMA. MorrisMiddlesbrough · CM
83medium
1+best shout8373% hit2+5955% hit
Drawn/90 2.39·Dribbles/90 0.94
Last 540201
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningAMA. MorrisMiddlesbrough · CM
99high
1+99100% hit2+best shout7973% hit
Tackles/90 2.87·Int/90 0.97
Last 516661
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
RPR. PukštasMiddlesbrough · CM
90high
1+best shout900% hit2+660% hit
Tackles/90 2.49·Int/90 0.80
Last 510
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
EEE. ErhahonBolton · CM
90high
1+best shout9083% hit2+6050% hit
Tackles/90 2.88·Int/90 1.52
Last 542130
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
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Bolton vs Middlesbrough: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
We price 8 player markets for Bolton vs Middlesbrough: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.