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Celta Vigo vs Alaves: La Liga prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Celta Vigo
La Liga
Sun 18 Oct · 14:15 UTC
VS
Municipal de Balaídos

Alaves
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Celta Vigo
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Alaves
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely fouled99Aleix Febas
CEL · CM
CEL · CMMost likely tackle97N. Tenaglia
ALA · CB
ALA · CBMost likely foul89L. Boyé
ALA · ST
ALA · STMost likely shot86Toni Martínez
ALA · ST
ALA · STMost likely booking83Yoel Lago
CEL · CB
CEL · CBMost likely SoT56Toni Martínez
ALA · ST
ALA · STMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
CEL51.0%DRAW25.0%
ALA23.9%Most likely score1–111.8% · xG 1.76–1.14
Over 1.579.0%Over 2.554.9%Over 3.532.3%Under 2.545.1%BTTS56.8%
InputsClub strength rating 1679 vs 1535 (rating diff 144), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±120 / ±120 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition La Liga, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.76, λA 1.14 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningTMToni MartínezAlaves · ST
56low
1+best shout5653% hit2+2729% hit
SoT/90 1.08·Shots/90 3.12
Last 500001
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
LBL. BoyéAlaves · ST
52low
1+best shout5250% hit2+1814% hit
SoT/90 1.02·Shots/90 2.82
Last 530101
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
HGHugo GonzálezCelta Vigo · ST
49low
1+best shout4943% hit2+1514% hit
SoT/90 1.28·Shots/90 3.20
Last 521010
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningTMToni MartínezAlaves · ST
86high
1+8688% hit2+best shout7171% hit
Shots/90 3.12·SoT/90 1.08
Last 501301
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
HGHugo GonzálezCelta Vigo · ST
81medium
1+best shout8171% hit2+4729% hit
Shots/90 3.20·SoT/90 1.28
Last 543111
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
LBL. BoyéAlaves · ST
79medium
1+7971% hit2+best shout6050% hit
Shots/90 2.82·SoT/90 1.02
Last 534401
Gets his shots off regularly.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningYLYoel LagoCelta Vigo · CB
83high
Cards/90 0.43·YC 10
Last 5✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
ARA. RebbachAlaves · CM
77high
Cards/90 0.43·YC 11
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
AFA. FayeCelta Vigo · CB
74high
Cards/90 0.46·YC 10
Last 5✕
His card history is doing the talking.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningLBL. BoyéAlaves · ST
89high
1+8979% hit2+best shout6157% hit
Fouls/90 2.71·YC 4
Last 524222
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 20.3: gets away with it.
ABAntonio BlancoAlaves · CM
88high
1+8878% hit2+best shout6156% hit
Fouls/90 2.01·YC 12
Last 512000
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
AMAitor MañasAlaves · ST
86high
1+best shout8650% hit2+520% hit
Fouls/90 2.15·YC 0
Last 511010
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningAFAleix FebasCelta Vigo · CM
99high
1+9983% hit2+best shout7950% hit
Drawn/90 3.21·Dribbles/90 1.40
Last 543011
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
MRMiguel RodríguezAlaves · ST
85high
1+best shout8533% hit2+590% hit
Drawn/90 3.23·Dribbles/90 1.17
Last 5001
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
IMI. MoribaCelta Vigo · CM
81medium
1+best shout8172% hit2+4844% hit
Drawn/90 1.95·Dribbles/90 0.43
Last 501034
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningNTN. TenagliaAlaves · CB
97high
1+best shout9794% hit2+6767% hit
Tackles/90 1.99·Int/90 1.30
Last 512126
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
IMI. MoribaCelta Vigo · CM
90high
1+9083% hit2+best shout7061% hit
Tackles/90 2.95·Int/90 0.86
Last 521635
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
ABAntonio BlancoAlaves · CM
89high
1+8972% hit2+best shout7567% hit
Tackles/90 2.65·Int/90 1.64
Last 522400
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
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Preview build for review, not gambling advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Celta Vigo vs Alaves: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
We price 8 player markets for Celta Vigo vs Alaves: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.