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Lens vs Marseille: Ligue 1 prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Lens
Ligue 1
Sunday · 19:45 UTC
VS
Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Marseille
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Lens
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Marseille
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely tackle98S. Sagnan
LEN · CB
LEN · CBMost likely shot93F. Thauvin
LEN · RW
LEN · RWMost likely foul87P. Højbjerg
MAR · CDM/CM
MAR · CDM/CMMost likely fouled85A. Harit
MAR · RM
MAR · RMMost likely booking76N. Äelik
LEN · CB
LEN · CBMost likely SoT67F. Thauvin
LEN · RW
LEN · RWMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
LEN46.7%DRAW23.7%
MAR29.6%Most likely score1–110.3% · xG 1.91–1.48
Over 1.585.5%Over 2.565.3%Over 3.543.0%Under 2.534.7%BTTS66.2%
InputsClub strength rating 1748 vs 1676 (rating diff 72), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±120 / ±120 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition Ligue 1, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.91, λA 1.48 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningFTF. ThauvinLens · RW
67medium
1+best shout6770% hit2+2930% hit
SoT/90 1.20·Shots/90 2.79
Last 501101
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
JKJ. KadileLens · LW/RW
57low
1+best shout5738% hit2+2313% hit
SoT/90 1.39·Shots/90 2.33
Last 502100
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
THT. HazardLens · LW/ST
53low
1+best shout5344% hit2+150% hit
SoT/90 1.02·Shots/90 1.97
Last 511110
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningFTF. ThauvinLens · RW
93high
1+9396% hit2+best shout6561% hit
Shots/90 2.79·SoT/90 1.20
Last 501211
Gets his shots off regularly.
THT. HazardLens · LW/ST
82medium
1+best shout8289% hit2+4433% hit
Shots/90 1.97·SoT/90 1.02
Last 523113
Gets his shots off regularly.
IPIgor PaixãoMarseille · LW/LWB
80medium
1+best shout8090% hit2+5670% hit
Shots/90 2.71·SoT/90 1.09
Last 548422
Gets his shots off regularly.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningNÄN. ÄelikLens · CB
76high
Cards/90 0.34·YC 3
Last 5✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
JGJ. GraditLens · CB
73high
Cards/90 0.28·YC 3
Last 5✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
TNT. NnadiMarseille · CDM
73high
Cards/90 0.38·YC 9
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningPHP. HøjbjergMarseille · CDM/CM
87high
1+best shout8784% hit2+5253% hit
Fouls/90 1.36·YC 8
Last 522034
The opponent matchup sharpens the risk.
TNT. NnadiMarseille · CDM
86high
1+8671% hit2+best shout6257% hit
Fouls/90 2.22·YC 9
Last 523242
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
NÄN. ÄelikLens · CB
86high
1+8667% hit2+best shout5867% hit
Fouls/90 1.90·YC 3
Last 5023
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningAHA. HaritMarseille · RM
85high
1+best shout8582% hit2+5764% hit
Drawn/90 2.01·Dribbles/90 2.55
Last 500222
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
IPIgor PaixãoMarseille · LW/LWB
80medium
1+best shout8080% hit2+4140% hit
Drawn/90 1.54·Dribbles/90 1.11
Last 510111
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
MSM. SkóraśLens · LWB
77medium
1+best shout7775% hit2+3117% hit
Drawn/90 1.93·Dribbles/90 1.10
Last 511000
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningSSS. SagnanLens · CB
98high
1+9875% hit2+best shout9175% hit
Tackles/90 3.99·Int/90 1.81
Last 56320
A tackling machine, he’s everywhere.
NÄN. ÄelikLens · CB
96high
1+96100% hit2+best shout7467% hit
Tackles/90 2.77·Int/90 1.36
Last 5312
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
SASaud AbdulhamidLens · RWB
85high
1+best shout8575% hit2+5544% hit
Tackles/90 2.47·Int/90 0.72
Last 506141
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
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Lens vs Marseille: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Lens vs Marseille?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Lens vs Marseille?
We price 8 player markets for Lens vs Marseille: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.