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Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad: Europa League prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Lillestrom
Europa League
Tomorrow · 19:00 UTC
VS
Åråsen Stadion

Sociedad
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Lillestrom
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Real Sociedad
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely fouled97L. Alperud
LIL · ST
LIL · STMost likely tackle90Sergio Gómez
REA · CB
REA · CBMost likely shot89T. Lehne Olsen
LIL · ST
LIL · STMost likely foul81Ibai Aguirre
REA · CM
REA · CMMost likely booking78Y. Herrera
REA · CM
REA · CMMost likely SoT69T. Lehne Olsen
LIL · ST
LIL · STMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
LIL38.3%DRAW25.6%
REA36.2%Most likely score1–111.7% · xG 1.56–1.51
Over 1.581.6%Over 2.558.8%Over 3.536.2%Under 2.541.2%BTTS62.0%
InputsClub strength rating 1500 vs 1603 (rating diff -103), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±150 / ±120 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition Europa League, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.56, λA 1.51 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningTOT. Lehne OlsenLillestrom · ST
69medium
1+best shout6969% hit2+278% hit
SoT/90 1.65·Shots/90 4.38
Last 511111
High shot volume: he tests the keeper most weeks.
GCGorka CarreraReal Sociedad · ST
62medium
1+best shout620% hit2+300% hit
SoT/90 1.20·Shots/90 1.99
Last 510
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
OÓO. ÓskarssonReal Sociedad · ST
59low
1+best shout5961% hit2+3039% hit
SoT/90 1.81·Shots/90 2.80
Last 502001
High shot volume: he tests the keeper most weeks.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningTOT. Lehne OlsenLillestrom · ST
89high
1+8985% hit2+best shout6839% hit
Shots/90 4.38·SoT/90 1.65
Last 534121
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
GGGonçalo GuedesReal Sociedad · ST
81medium
1+best shout8186% hit2+5150% hit
Shots/90 2.44·SoT/90 0.94
Last 533103
Gets his shots off regularly.
MOMikel OyarzabalReal Sociedad · ST
77medium
1+best shout7770% hit2+5645% hit
Shots/90 2.47·SoT/90 1.12
Last 533315
Gets his shots off regularly.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningYHY. HerreraReal Sociedad · CM
78high
Cards/90 0.47·YC 7
Last 5✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
BTBeñat TurrientesReal Sociedad · CM
64medium
Cards/90 0.44·YC 10
Last 5✕✕✕
His card history is doing the talking.
GNG. NyheimLillestrom · CM
62medium
Cards/90 0.87·YC 1
Last 5✕✕✕
His card history is doing the talking.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningIAIbai AguirreReal Sociedad · CM
81medium
1+best shout810% hit2+470% hit
Fouls/90 1.85·YC 7
Last 51
His card history is doing the talking.
YHY. HerreraReal Sociedad · CM
78medium
1+best shout7871% hit2+4343% hit
Fouls/90 2.44·YC 7
Last 526021
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
GCGorka CarreraReal Sociedad · ST
77medium
1+best shout770% hit2+420% hit
Fouls/90 1.94·YC 13
Last 502
His card history is doing the talking.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningLAL. AlperudLillestrom · ST
97high
1+9775% hit2+best shout7425% hit
Drawn/90 2.44·Dribbles/90 4.88
Last 51041
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
TKT. KuboReal Sociedad · ST
80medium
1+best shout8053% hit2+5733% hit
Drawn/90 2.76·Dribbles/90 2.11
Last 510000
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
MOMikel OyarzabalReal Sociedad · ST
80medium
1+best shout8070% hit2+4025% hit
Drawn/90 1.56·Dribbles/90 1.11
Last 510211
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningSGSergio GómezReal Sociedad · CB
90high
1+best shout9080% hit2+6045% hit
Tackles/90 2.61·Int/90 1.08
Last 521401
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
IAIbai AguirreReal Sociedad · CM
84medium
1+best shout840% hit2+520% hit
Tackles/90 1.84·Int/90 0.76
Last 50
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
JPJon PachecoReal Sociedad · CB
83medium
1+best shout830% hit2+510% hit
Tackles/90 1.80·Int/90 0.57
Last 51
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
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Preview build for review, not gambling advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?
We price 8 player markets for Lillestrom vs Sociedad: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.