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Lorient vs Monaco: Ligue 1 prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Lorient
Ligue 1
Sun 18 Oct · 15:15 UTC
VS
Stade du Moustoir

Monaco
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Lorient
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Monaco
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely tackle97L. Camara
MON · CM
MON · CMMost likely fouled95L. Camara
MON · CM
MON · CMMost likely shot89F. Balogun
MON · ST
MON · STMost likely foul85Vanderson
MON · CB
MON · CBMost likely booking74Flávio Nazinho
MON · CB
MON · CBMost likely SoT70F. Balogun
MON · ST
MON · STMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
LOR38.7%DRAW25.9%
MON35.4%Most likely score1–112.0% · xG 1.54–1.46
Over 1.580.5%Over 2.557.1%Over 3.534.5%Under 2.542.9%BTTS60.7%
InputsClub strength rating 1580 vs 1632 (rating diff -52), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±120 / ±120 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition Ligue 1, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.54, λA 1.46 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningFBF. BalogunMonaco · ST
70medium
1+best shout7075% hit2+3017% hit
SoT/90 1.34·Shots/90 3.09
Last 510110
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
AFAnsu FatiMonaco · ST
60low
1+best shout6064% hit2+2627% hit
SoT/90 1.77·Shots/90 3.46
Last 510311
High shot volume: he tests the keeper most weeks.
MKM. KoneLorient · ST
60low
1+best shout6067% hit2+2633% hit
SoT/90 2.00·Shots/90 2.56
Last 532011
High shot volume: he tests the keeper most weeks.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningFBF. BalogunMonaco · ST
89high
1+8992% hit2+best shout6850% hit
Shots/90 3.09·SoT/90 1.34
Last 521511
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
AFAnsu FatiMonaco · ST
81medium
1+best shout8182% hit2+5246% hit
Shots/90 3.46·SoT/90 1.77
Last 510421
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
TMT. MinaminoMonaco · ST
80medium
1+best shout800% hit2+560% hit
Shots/90 2.43·SoT/90 0.62
Last 50
Gets his shots off regularly.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningFNFlávio NazinhoMonaco · CB
74high
Cards/90 0.46·YC 16
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His card history is doing the talking.
VAVandersonMonaco · CB
73high
Cards/90 0.32·YC 7
Last 5✕✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
FMF. MendyLorient · CB
70high
Cards/90 0.56·YC 2
His card history is doing the talking.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningVAVandersonMonaco · CB
85high
1+best shout8589% hit2+4744% hit
Fouls/90 2.09·YC 7
Last 511133
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
LCL. CamaraMonaco · CM
81medium
1+best shout8178% hit2+3933% hit
Fouls/90 1.46·YC 10
Last 511101
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
MCM. CoulibalyMonaco · CM
74medium
1+best shout7462% hit2+308% hit
Fouls/90 1.97·YC 9
Last 501001
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningLCL. CamaraMonaco · CM
95high
1+9594% hit2+best shout6156% hit
Drawn/90 2.49·Dribbles/90 0.98
Last 533162
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
KKK. KouassiLorient · CM
85high
1+best shout8587% hit2+4647% hit
Drawn/90 1.68·Dribbles/90 1.20
Last 521210
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
FBF. BalogunMonaco · ST
75medium
1+best shout7558% hit2+4025% hit
Drawn/90 1.64·Dribbles/90 0.45
Last 501101
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningLCL. CamaraMonaco · CM
97high
1+9789% hit2+best shout8072% hit
Tackles/90 3.00·Int/90 1.66
Last 574230
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
PCPape CabralMonaco · CM
92high
1+best shout920% hit2+670% hit
Tackles/90 6.32·Int/90 0.69
Last 52
A tackling machine, he’s everywhere.
FNFlávio NazinhoMonaco · CB
91high
1+9178% hit2+best shout6867% hit
Tackles/90 2.42·Int/90 1.81
Last 523001
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
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Lorient vs Monaco: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Lorient vs Monaco?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Lorient vs Monaco?
We price 8 player markets for Lorient vs Monaco: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.