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Lyon vs Nice: Ligue 1 prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Lyon
Ligue 1
Sun 18 Oct · 18:45 UTC
VS
Groupama Stadium

Nice
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Lyon
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Nice
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely tackle99X. Mandza Tsiendi
NIC · CB
NIC · CBMost likely shot95E. Nuamah
LYO · ST
LYO · STMost likely foul92Z. Diallo
NIC · ST
NIC · STMost likely fouled91C. Tolisso
LYO · CM
LYO · CMMost likely booking85I. Camara
NIC · CM
NIC · CMMost likely SoT78Keito Nakamura
LYO · ST
LYO · STMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
LYO65.4%DRAW20.9%
NIC13.7%Most likely score2–011.7% · xG 2.14–0.86
Over 1.580.2%Over 2.556.7%Over 3.533.8%Under 2.543.3%BTTS51.3%
InputsClub strength rating 1695 vs 1434 (rating diff 261), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±120 / ±120 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition Ligue 1, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 2.14, λA 0.86 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningKNKeito NakamuraLyon · ST
78medium
1+best shout7840% hit2+4220% hit
SoT/90 1.45·Shots/90 2.30
Last 502010
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
CTC. TolissoLyon · CM
69medium
1+best shout6971% hit2+2019% hit
SoT/90 1.18·Shots/90 2.21
Last 501201
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
EWE. WahiNice · ST
60low
1+best shout6069% hit2+2631% hit
SoT/90 1.47·Shots/90 2.52
Last 511110
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningENE. NuamahLyon · ST
95high
1+9577% hit2+best shout6746% hit
Shots/90 3.39·SoT/90 1.06
Last 542603
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
KNKeito NakamuraLyon · ST
94high
1+9460% hit2+best shout7160% hit
Shots/90 2.30·SoT/90 1.45
Last 502022
Gets his shots off regularly.
LOL. OpendaLyon · ST
92high
1+9282% hit2+best shout6264% hit
Shots/90 3.60·SoT/90 0.95
Last 590431
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningICI. CamaraNice · CM
85high
Cards/90 0.50·YC 3
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
ARAlejandro Gomes RodriguezLyon · ST
78high
Cards/90 0.63·YC 3
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
ZAZ. AthekameLyon · CB
69high
Cards/90 0.30·YC 6
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningZDZ. DialloNice · ST
92high
1+920% hit2+best shout640% hit
Fouls/90 3.97·YC 1
Last 53
His card history is doing the talking.
ICI. CamaraNice · CM
91high
1+91no hit data2+best shout58no hit data
Fouls/90 2.83·YC 3
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
ARAlejandro Gomes RodriguezLyon · ST
73medium
1+best shout73no hit data2+39no hit data
Fouls/90 3.74·YC 3
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningCTC. TolissoLyon · CM
91high
1+best shout9186% hit2+5143% hit
Drawn/90 2.06·Dribbles/90 0.37
Last 530421
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
LOL. OpendaLyon · ST
83medium
1+best shout8382% hit2+4755% hit
Drawn/90 2.63·Dribbles/90 0.74
Last 504124
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
ENE. NuamahLyon · ST
78medium
1+best shout7877% hit2+3531% hit
Drawn/90 1.69·Dribbles/90 2.54
Last 511131
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningXTX. Mandza TsiendiNice · CB
99high
1+99100% hit2+best shout7467% hit
Tackles/90 2.34·Int/90 1.51
Last 533124
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
NNN. NkounkouNice · CM
97high
1+97100% hit2+best shout6975% hit
Tackles/90 3.70·Int/90 1.70
Last 51336
A tackling machine, he’s everywhere.
ICI. CamaraNice · CM
96high
1+96no hit data2+best shout68no hit data
Tackles/90 3.33·Int/90 1.17
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
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Preview build for review, not gambling advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Lyon vs Nice: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Lyon vs Nice?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Lyon vs Nice?
We price 8 player markets for Lyon vs Nice: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.