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Malaga vs Real Sociedad: La Liga prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Malaga
La Liga
Sun 18 Oct · 16:30 UTC
VS
La Rosaleda

Sociedad
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Malaga
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Real Sociedad
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely tackle99Puga
MAL · CB
MAL · CBMost likely foul92Puga
MAL · CB
MAL · CBMost likely fouled81Álex Pastor
MAL · CB
MAL · CBMost likely shot80Chupe
MAL · ST
MAL · STMost likely booking77Puga
MAL · CB
MAL · CBMost likely SoT64Gorka Carrera
REA · ST
REA · STMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
MAL31.9%DRAW27.5%
REA40.6%Most likely score1–113.1% · xG 1.23–1.42
Over 1.575.0%Over 2.549.3%Over 3.527.3%Under 2.550.7%BTTS54.4%
InputsClub strength rating 1500 vs 1603 (rating diff -103), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±150 / ±120 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition La Liga, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.23, λA 1.42 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningGCGorka CarreraReal Sociedad · ST
64medium
1+best shout640% hit2+300% hit
SoT/90 1.20·Shots/90 1.99
Last 510
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
AHAdrián Niño HerediaMalaga · ST
61low
1+best shout6173% hit2+2427% hit
SoT/90 2.01·Shots/90 3.25
Last 511002
High shot volume: he tests the keeper most weeks.
CHChupeMalaga · ST
59low
1+best shout5956% hit2+2931% hit
SoT/90 1.31·Shots/90 2.40
Last 520001
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningCHChupeMalaga · ST
80medium
1+best shout8081% hit2+5863% hit
Shots/90 2.40·SoT/90 1.31
Last 542101
Gets his shots off regularly.
MOMikel OyarzabalReal Sociedad · ST
79medium
1+best shout7968% hit2+5642% hit
Shots/90 2.47·SoT/90 1.12
Last 513331
Gets his shots off regularly.
GCGorka CarreraReal Sociedad · ST
79medium
1+best shout790% hit2+540% hit
Shots/90 1.99·SoT/90 1.20
Last 510
Gets his shots off regularly.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningPUPugaMalaga · CB
77high
Cards/90 0.37·YC 12
Last 5✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
BTBeñat TurrientesReal Sociedad · CM
74high
Cards/90 0.44·YC 10
Last 5✕✕✕
His card history is doing the talking.
JSJosé SalinasMalaga · CB
73high
Cards/90 0.49·YC 4
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His card history is doing the talking.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningPUPugaMalaga · CB
92high
1+9287% hit2+best shout5540% hit
Fouls/90 2.11·YC 12
Last 522131
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
ÁPÁlex PastorMalaga · CB
84medium
1+best shout84no hit data2+49no hit data
Fouls/90 1.50·YC 1
His card history is doing the talking. Foul-to-card ratio 3, and refs book him for it.
IAIbai AguirreReal Sociedad · CM
83medium
1+best shout830% hit2+510% hit
Fouls/90 1.85·YC 7
Last 51
His card history is doing the talking.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningÁPÁlex PastorMalaga · CB
81medium
1+best shout81no hit data2+47no hit data
Drawn/90 3.00·Dribbles/90 0.00
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
TKT. KuboReal Sociedad · ST
80medium
1+best shout8057% hit2+5236% hit
Drawn/90 2.76·Dribbles/90 2.11
Last 501000
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
DLDavid LarrubiaMalaga · CM
80medium
1+best shout8081% hit2+3731% hit
Drawn/90 1.57·Dribbles/90 2.98
Last 511122
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningPUPugaMalaga · CB
99high
1+9993% hit2+best shout8880% hit
Tackles/90 3.67·Int/90 1.44
Last 531162
A tackling machine, he’s everywhere.
DLDavid LarrubiaMalaga · CM
99high
1+99100% hit2+best shout8169% hit
Tackles/90 3.14·Int/90 0.74
Last 511312
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
SGSergio GómezReal Sociedad · CB
88high
1+best shout8879% hit2+5947% hit
Tackles/90 2.61·Int/90 1.08
Last 522140
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
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Preview build for review, not gambling advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Malaga vs Real Sociedad: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Malaga vs Real Sociedad?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Malaga vs Real Sociedad?
We price 8 player markets for Malaga vs Sociedad: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.