Loading match dossier…
Pick a fixture from the dashboard.
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff: Championship prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Middlesbrough
Championship
Sat 17 Oct · 11:30 UTC
VS
Riverside Stadium

Cardiff
Match status:
We can't preview this one yet.
Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
Loading top players…
Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Middlesbrough
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
| Loading top players… |
Offensive
| Loading top players… |
Shooting
| Loading top players… |
Goals & assists
| Loading top players… |
Cardiff
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
| Loading top players… |
Offensive
| Loading top players… |
Shooting
| Loading top players… |
Goals & assists
| Loading top players… |
Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
Loading streaks…
Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
Loading head-to-head record…
Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely tackle99A. Morris
MID · CM
MID · CMMost likely shot93W. Lankshear
MID · ST
MID · STMost likely fouled89R. Pukštas
MID · CM
MID · CMMost likely foul88R. Pukštas
MID · CM
MID · CMMost likely booking72R. Kpakio
CAR · RB
CAR · RBMost likely SoT65J. Moylan
CAR · ST
CAR · STMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
MID49.0%DRAW27.4%
CAR23.6%Most likely score1–113.0% · xG 1.52–0.97
Over 1.571.7%Over 2.545.2%Over 3.523.7%Under 2.554.8%BTTS49.3%
InputsClub strength rating 1534 vs 1500 (rating diff 34), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±120 / ±150 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition Championship, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.52, λA 0.97 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningJMJ. MoylanCardiff · ST
65medium
1+best shout6567% hit2+3025% hit
SoT/90 1.37·Shots/90 3.07
Last 511304
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
YSY. SalechCardiff · ST
65medium
1+best shout6569% hit2+3131% hit
SoT/90 1.29·Shots/90 2.84
Last 511332
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
WLW. LankshearMiddlesbrough · ST
62medium
1+best shout6269% hit2+3254% hit
SoT/90 0.89·Shots/90 2.15
Last 512032
Gets into shooting positions.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningWLW. LankshearMiddlesbrough · ST
93high
1+93100% hit2+best shout6985% hit
Shots/90 2.15·SoT/90 0.89
Last 533253
Gets his shots off regularly.
JMJ. MoylanCardiff · ST
87high
1+8792% hit2+best shout6758% hit
Shots/90 3.07·SoT/90 1.37
Last 561748
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
ACA. Cozier-DuberryMiddlesbrough · CM
86high
1+best shout86100% hit2+5471% hit
Shots/90 2.51·SoT/90 1.17
Last 527214
Gets his shots off regularly.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningRKR. KpakioCardiff · RB
72high
Cards/90 0.32·YC 8
Last 5✕✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
JCJ. ColwillCardiff · CM
68high
Cards/90 0.29·YC 9
Last 5✕✕✕
The opponent matchup sharpens the risk.
RPR. PukštasMiddlesbrough · CM
68high
Cards/90 0.22·YC 6
Last 5✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningRPR. PukštasMiddlesbrough · CM
88high
1+880% hit2+best shout670% hit
Fouls/90 2.54·YC 6
Last 520
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 11.5: gets away with it.
DMD. MaficoCardiff · CM
88high
1+best shout88no hit data2+54no hit data
Fouls/90 1.74·YC 1
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
WLW. LankshearMiddlesbrough · ST
80medium
1+best shout8077% hit2+4539% hit
Fouls/90 2.08·YC 4
Last 501311
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 23: gets away with it.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningRPR. PukštasMiddlesbrough · CM
89high
1+890% hit2+best shout630% hit
Drawn/90 2.51·Dribbles/90 1.31
Last 500
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
AMA. MorrisMiddlesbrough · CM
86high
1+8671% hit2+best shout6457% hit
Drawn/90 2.39·Dribbles/90 0.94
Last 534020
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
TCT. ConwayMiddlesbrough · ST
82medium
1+best shout8272% hit2+4639% hit
Drawn/90 1.63·Dribbles/90 1.01
Last 540021
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningAMA. MorrisMiddlesbrough · CM
99high
1+99100% hit2+best shout7976% hit
Tackles/90 2.87·Int/90 0.97
Last 531666
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
RPR. PukštasMiddlesbrough · CM
87high
1+best shout870% hit2+660% hit
Tackles/90 2.49·Int/90 0.80
Last 510
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
SBS. BerhalterMiddlesbrough · CM
85high
1+best shout8575% hit2+6250% hit
Tackles/90 2.42·Int/90 1.07
Last 520104
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
Loading value picks…
Preview build for review, not gambling advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
We price 8 player markets for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.