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Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union: MLS prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Nashville SC
MLS
Thursday · 00:30 UTC
VS
Geodis Park

Philadelphia Union
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Nashville SC
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Philadelphia Union
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely tackle99P. Ndinga Ossibadjouo
PHI · LB
PHI · LBMost likely shot96H. Mukhtar
NAS · CAM
NAS · CAMMost likely foul91B. Damiani
PHI · ST
PHI · STMost likely fouled86W. Madrigal
NAS · CAM
NAS · CAMMost likely SoT83S. Surridge
NAS · ST
NAS · STMost likely booking76J. Sery Larsen
PHI · CB
PHI · CBMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
NAS56.7%DRAW21.4%
PHI21.9%Most likely score2–19.6% · xG 2.27–1.34
Over 1.587.7%Over 2.569.0%Over 3.547.1%Under 2.531.0%BTTS66.5%
InputsClub strength rating 1616 vs 1434 (rating diff 182), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±90 / ±90 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition MLS, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 2.27, λA 1.34 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningSSS. SurridgeNashville SC · ST
83high
1+best shout8377% hit2+4027% hit
SoT/90 1.64·Shots/90 3.06
Last 531403
High shot volume: he tests the keeper most weeks.
MIM. IloskiPhiladelphia Union · ST
76medium
1+best shout7686% hit2+4143% hit
SoT/90 1.46·Shots/90 3.93
Last 531214
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
HMH. MukhtarNashville SC · CAM
66medium
1+best shout6657% hit2+3536% hit
SoT/90 1.28·Shots/90 3.13
Last 524421
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningHMH. MukhtarNashville SC · CAM
96high
1+9689% hit2+best shout7668% hit
Shots/90 3.13·SoT/90 1.28
Last 555623
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
SSS. SurridgeNashville SC · ST
91high
1+9177% hit2+best shout8377% hit
Shots/90 3.06·SoT/90 1.64
Last 555503
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
MIM. IloskiPhiladelphia Union · ST
89high
1+8993% hit2+best shout8286% hit
Shots/90 3.93·SoT/90 1.46
Last 563547
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningJLJ. Sery LarsenPhiladelphia Union · CB
76high
Cards/90 0.38·YC 12
Last 5✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
POP. Ndinga OssibadjouoPhiladelphia Union · LB
73high
Cards/90 0.29·YC 5
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
JBJ. BuenoPhiladelphia Union · CM
69high
Cards/90 0.32·YC 8
Last 5✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningBDB. DamianiPhiladelphia Union · ST
91high
1+9186% hit2+best shout6468% hit
Fouls/90 2.23·YC 6
Last 546142
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 10.7: gets away with it.
POP. Ndinga OssibadjouoPhiladelphia Union · LB
88high
1+8875% hit2+best shout5650% hit
Fouls/90 2.21·YC 5
Last 52130
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
DJD. Jean-JacquesPhiladelphia Union · CM
87high
1+best shout8784% hit2+4744% hit
Fouls/90 1.66·YC 14
Last 521110
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningWMW. MadrigalNashville SC · CAM
86high
1+best shout8679% hit2+5350% hit
Drawn/90 2.29·Dribbles/90 0.75
Last 512101
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
FWF. WestfieldPhiladelphia Union · RB
85high
1+best shout8592% hit2+4546% hit
Drawn/90 2.04·Dribbles/90 0.27
Last 501341
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
HMH. MukhtarNashville SC · CAM
81medium
1+best shout8171% hit2+4336% hit
Drawn/90 1.61·Dribbles/90 0.90
Last 513010
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningPOP. Ndinga OssibadjouoPhiladelphia Union · LB
99high
1+9950% hit2+best shout9450% hit
Tackles/90 4.40·Int/90 1.37
Last 52020
A tackling machine, he’s everywhere.
JLJ. LukićPhiladelphia Union · CM
93high
1+9382% hit2+best shout7163% hit
Tackles/90 2.88·Int/90 1.47
Last 574334
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
FWF. WestfieldPhiladelphia Union · RB
91high
1+best shout9183% hit2+5954% hit
Tackles/90 1.73·Int/90 1.47
Last 500110
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
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Preview build for review, not gambling advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?
We price 8 player markets for Nashville vs Philadelphia: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.