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Real Madrid vs Sevilla: La Liga prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Real Madrid
La Liga
Sunday · 19:00 UTC
VS
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium

Sevilla
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Real Madrid
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Sevilla
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely shot99Kylian Mbappé
REA · ST
REA · STMost likely foul99Fábio Cardoso
SEV · CB
SEV · CBMost likely tackle99Juan Iglesias
SEV · CM
SEV · CMMost likely SoT98Kylian Mbappé
REA · ST
REA · STMost likely fouled96Vinícius Júnior
REA · ST
REA · STMost likely booking81José Ángel Carmona
SEV · RB
SEV · RBMost likely G+A70Kylian Mbappé
REA · ST
REA · STMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
REA69.2%DRAW17.8%
SEV13.0%Most likely score2–19.7% · xG 2.63–1.04
Over 1.587.9%Over 2.569.4%Over 3.547.2%Under 2.530.6%BTTS60.3%
InputsClub strength rating 1792 vs 1551 (rating diff 241), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±120 / ±120 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition La Liga, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 2.63, λA 1.04 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningKMKylian MbappéReal Madrid · ST
70medium
Goals/90 1.02·Assists/90 0.16
Last 532001
A genuine goal threat, and red-hot lately (60% G+A in his last 10).
Shot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningKMKylian MbappéReal Madrid · ST
98high
1+9883% hit2+best shout8072% hit
SoT/90 2.55·Shots/90 5.18
Last 531024
High shot volume: he tests the keeper most weeks.
ENEndrickReal Madrid · ST
80high
1+best shout800% hit2+430% hit
SoT/90 1.72·Shots/90 3.69
Last 502
High shot volume: he tests the keeper most weeks.
VJVinícius JúniorReal Madrid · ST
77medium
1+best shout7763% hit2+4237% hit
SoT/90 1.40·Shots/90 3.42
Last 521010
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningKMKylian MbappéReal Madrid · ST
99high
1+99100% hit2+best shout9994% hit
Shots/90 5.18·SoT/90 2.55
Last 554134
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
VJVinícius JúniorReal Madrid · ST
99high
1+9995% hit2+best shout9179% hit
Shots/90 3.42·SoT/90 1.40
Last 545210
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
ENEndrickReal Madrid · ST
99high
1+990% hit2+best shout850% hit
Shots/90 3.69·SoT/90 1.72
Last 512
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningJCJosé Ángel CarmonaSevilla · RB
81high
Cards/90 0.45·YC 14
Last 5✕✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
NGN. GuillenSevilla · CM
79high
Cards/90 1.00·YC 1
Last 5✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
MAMarcãoSevilla · CB
77high
Cards/90 0.38·YC 4
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningFCFábio CardosoSevilla · CB
99high
1+99no hit data2+best shout79no hit data
Fouls/90 2.77·YC 0
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
NGN. GuillenSevilla · CM
97high
1+970% hit2+best shout770% hit
Fouls/90 5.00·YC 1
Last 514
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
LAL. AgouméSevilla · CM
91high
1+9182% hit2+best shout5953% hit
Fouls/90 1.95·YC 13
Last 520125
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningVJVinícius JúniorReal Madrid · ST
96high
1+9684% hit2+best shout7363% hit
Drawn/90 2.48·Dribbles/90 2.50
Last 523101
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
RUR. UreSevilla · ST
87high
1+8788% hit2+best shout6350% hit
Drawn/90 2.51·Dribbles/90 0.27
Last 531033
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
JBJ. BellinghamReal Madrid · CM
86high
1+8675% hit2+best shout6975% hit
Drawn/90 2.41·Dribbles/90 1.97
Last 522345
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningJIJuan IglesiasSevilla · CM
99high
1+99100% hit2+best shout8888% hit
Tackles/90 2.97·Int/90 0.73
Last 512239
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
LAL. AgouméSevilla · CM
99high
1+9994% hit2+best shout7982% hit
Tackles/90 2.40·Int/90 1.58
Last 521433
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
KSKike SalasSevilla · CB
99high
1+9994% hit2+best shout7475% hit
Tackles/90 2.30·Int/90 1.31
Last 511312
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
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Preview build for review, not gambling advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
We price 8 player markets for Madrid vs Sevilla: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.