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San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC: MLS prediction, stats and bet builder tips

San Jose Earthquakes
MLS
Sun 18 Oct · 02:30 UTC
VS
Avaya Stadium

Nashville SC
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
San Jose Earthquakes
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Nashville SC
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely foul93R. Vieira
SAN · CM
SAN · CMMost likely tackle93M. Corcoran
NAS · CM
NAS · CMMost likely fouled89W. Madrigal
NAS · CAM
NAS · CAMMost likely shot84S. Surridge
NAS · ST
NAS · STMost likely SoT77S. Surridge
NAS · ST
NAS · STMost likely booking73J. Gaines
NAS · CB
NAS · CBMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
SAN35.4%DRAW26.5%
NAS38.1%Most likely score1–112.5% · xG 1.41–1.47
Over 1.578.6%Over 2.554.4%Over 3.531.9%Under 2.545.6%BTTS58.6%
InputsClub strength rating 1475 vs 1617 (rating diff -142), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±90 / ±90 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition MLS, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.41, λA 1.47 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningSSS. SurridgeNashville SC · ST
77medium
1+best shout7780% hit2+3625% hit
SoT/90 1.71·Shots/90 3.19
Last 522314
High shot volume: he tests the keeper most weeks.
TWT. WernerSan Jose Earthquakes · ST
60low
1+best shout6067% hit2+2842% hit
SoT/90 1.38·Shots/90 2.58
Last 521100
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
HMH. MukhtarNashville SC · CM
52low
1+best shout5254% hit2+2635% hit
SoT/90 1.26·Shots/90 3.17
Last 501244
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningSSS. SurridgeNashville SC · ST
84medium
1+8480% hit2+best shout7880% hit
Shots/90 3.19·SoT/90 1.71
Last 563555
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
HMH. MukhtarNashville SC · CM
84medium
1+8489% hit2+best shout6065% hit
Shots/90 3.17·SoT/90 1.26
Last 534556
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
OBO. BoudaSan Jose Earthquakes · ST
78medium
1+best shout7880% hit2+4640% hit
Shots/90 1.93·SoT/90 0.77
Last 512124
Gets his shots off regularly.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningJGJ. GainesNashville SC · CB
73high
Cards/90 0.73·YC 1
Last 5✕
His card history is doing the talking.
JJJack JasinskiSan Jose Earthquakes · CB
71high
Cards/90 0.33·YC 3
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
DLD. LovitzNashville SC · CB
70high
Cards/90 0.31·YC 17
Last 5✕✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningRVR. VieiraSan Jose Earthquakes · CM
93high
1+best shout9393% hit2+5447% hit
Fouls/90 1.97·YC 6
Last 511411
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
BLBeau LerouxSan Jose Earthquakes · CM
79medium
1+best shout7980% hit2+3635% hit
Fouls/90 1.28·YC 5
Last 511121
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
PYP. YazbekNashville SC · CM
77medium
1+best shout7783% hit2+3950% hit
Fouls/90 1.74·YC 3
Last 531431
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 13.7: gets away with it.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningWMW. MadrigalNashville SC · CAM
89high
1+best shout8983% hit2+5958% hit
Drawn/90 2.31·Dribbles/90 0.75
Last 523121
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
OBO. BoudaSan Jose Earthquakes · ST
86high
1+best shout8675% hit2+5645% hit
Drawn/90 2.05·Dribbles/90 1.07
Last 532113
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
SSS. SurridgeNashville SC · ST
83medium
1+best shout8380% hit2+4645% hit
Drawn/90 1.41·Dribbles/90 0.43
Last 511312
Wins the odd free-kick in dangerous areas.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningMCM. CorcoranNashville SC · CM
93high
1+best shout9388% hit2+5848% hit
Tackles/90 2.27·Int/90 0.71
Last 546412
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
MWM. WoledziNashville SC · CB
86high
1+best shout8680% hit2+4228% hit
Tackles/90 1.80·Int/90 1.36
Last 511010
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
BLBeau LerouxSan Jose Earthquakes · CM
82medium
1+best shout8270% hit2+5140% hit
Tackles/90 2.00·Int/90 1.11
Last 510201
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
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Preview build for review, not gambling advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC?
We price 8 player markets for San Jose vs Nashville: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.