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Sporting Kansas City vs Austin: MLS prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Sporting Kansas City
MLS
Yesterday · 00:30 UTC
VS
Children's Mercy Park

Austin
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Sporting Kansas City
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Austin
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely fouled94C. Harris
SPO · LM
SPO · LMMost likely tackle94E. Karić
SPO · LB
SPO · LBMost likely shot88André Luiz
SPO · RM
SPO · RMMost likely foul83Jansen Miller
SPO · CB
SPO · CBMost likely booking68Jansen Miller
SPO · CB
SPO · CBMost likely SoT66André Luiz
SPO · RM
SPO · RMMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
SPO41.6%DRAW27.0%
AUS31.3%Most likely score1–112.8% · xG 1.48–1.25
Over 1.576.4%Over 2.551.2%Over 3.529.0%Under 2.548.8%BTTS55.9%
InputsClub strength rating 1138 vs 1159 (rating diff -21), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±90 / ±90 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition MLS, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.48, λA 1.25 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningALAndré LuizSporting Kansas City · RM
66medium
1+best shout6678% hit2+3456% hit
SoT/90 1.29·Shots/90 2.85
Last 512301
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
MUM. UzuniAustin · LW
62medium
1+best shout6260% hit2+3435% hit
SoT/90 1.26·Shots/90 2.39
Last 500102
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
TCT. CalheiraSporting Kansas City · ST
56low
1+best shout5644% hit2+2622% hit
SoT/90 1.26·Shots/90 3.02
Last 502101
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningALAndré LuizSporting Kansas City · RM
88high
1+8889% hit2+best shout6878% hit
Shots/90 2.85·SoT/90 1.29
Last 535512
Gets his shots off regularly.
CHC. HarrisSporting Kansas City · LM
85high
1+best shout8587% hit2+5657% hit
Shots/90 2.04·SoT/90 0.81
Last 524201
Gets his shots off regularly.
TCT. CalheiraSporting Kansas City · ST
84medium
1+8478% hit2+best shout6556% hit
Shots/90 3.02·SoT/90 1.26
Last 504222
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningJMJansen MillerSporting Kansas City · CB
68high
Cards/90 0.33·YC 4
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
ZBZ. BassongSporting Kansas City · CM
67high
Cards/90 0.41·YC 5
Last 5✕✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
MDM. DeslerAustin · CB
64medium
Cards/90 0.24·YC 9
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningJMJansen MillerSporting Kansas City · CB
83medium
1+best shout8380% hit2+4950% hit
Fouls/90 2.24·YC 4
Last 510542
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
ZBZ. BassongSporting Kansas City · CM
81medium
1+best shout8177% hit2+4847% hit
Fouls/90 2.49·YC 5
Last 500411
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
JRJ. RosalesAustin · RWB
79medium
1+best shout7968% hit2+4640% hit
Fouls/90 1.79·YC 7
Last 503120
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningCHC. HarrisSporting Kansas City · LM
94high
1+9487% hit2+best shout6761% hit
Drawn/90 2.12·Dribbles/90 0.93
Last 521110
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
ALAndré LuizSporting Kansas City · RM
91high
1+9167% hit2+best shout7056% hit
Drawn/90 2.62·Dribbles/90 2.30
Last 502102
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
FTF. TorresAustin · RW
85high
1+best shout8578% hit2+5956% hit
Drawn/90 2.09·Dribbles/90 0.53
Last 511220
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningEKE. KarićSporting Kansas City · LB
94high
1+best shout9488% hit2+6750% hit
Tackles/90 2.55·Int/90 0.98
Last 521101
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
JRJ. RosalesAustin · RWB
85high
1+best shout8572% hit2+5032% hit
Tackles/90 2.09·Int/90 0.88
Last 514035
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
MDM. DeslerAustin · CB
85high
1+best shout8574% hit2+5037% hit
Tackles/90 2.37·Int/90 1.53
Last 522200
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
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Sporting Kansas City vs Austin: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Sporting Kansas City vs Austin?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Sporting Kansas City vs Austin?
We price 8 player markets for Sporting KC vs Austin: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.