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Torino vs Monza: Serie A prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Torino
Serie A
Friday · 18:45 UTC
VS
Stadio Olimpico di Torino

Monza
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Torino
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Monza
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely booking95Z. Aboukhlal
TOR · LWB
TOR · LWBMost likely tackle94Pedro Obiang
MON · CM
MON · CMMost likely foul92M. Ondoa
MON · CM
MON · CMMost likely fouled92G. Simeone
TOR · ST
TOR · STMost likely shot88G. Simeone
TOR · ST
TOR · STMost likely SoT57Gustavo Varela
MON · ST
MON · STMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
TOR46.4%DRAW26.8%
MON26.8%Most likely score1–112.8% · xG 1.56–1.13
Over 1.575.4%Over 2.549.9%Over 3.527.7%Under 2.550.1%BTTS53.9%
InputsClub strength rating 1560 vs 1500 (rating diff 60), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±120 / ±150 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition Serie A, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.56, λA 1.13 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningGVGustavo VarelaMonza · ST
57low
1+best shout5786% hit2+2243% hit
SoT/90 1.25·Shots/90 0.95
Last 511202
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
PCP. CutroneMonza · ST
52low
1+best shout5260% hit2+1927% hit
SoT/90 0.94·Shots/90 2.32
Last 502100
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
GSG. SimeoneTorino · ST
50low
1+best shout5053% hit2+1516% hit
SoT/90 0.99·Shots/90 2.93
Last 501012
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningGSG. SimeoneTorino · ST
88high
1+8890% hit2+best shout6879% hit
Shots/90 2.93·SoT/90 0.99
Last 504323
Gets his shots off regularly.
PCP. CutroneMonza · ST
77medium
1+best shout7780% hit2+5360% hit
Shots/90 2.32·SoT/90 0.94
Last 522211
Gets his shots off regularly.
JRJay RobinsonMonza · ST
68medium
1+best shout6871% hit2+3857% hit
Shots/90 2.65·SoT/90 1.07
Last 521323
Gets his shots off regularly.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningZAZ. AboukhlalTorino · LWB
95high
Cards/90 0.75·YC 6
Last 5✕✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
JZJ. ZiółkowskiMonza · CB
91high
Cards/90 0.51·YC 6
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
KBK. BaldéMonza · ST
81high
Cards/90 0.79·YC 9
His card history is doing the talking.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningMOM. OndoaMonza · CM
92high
1+9267% hit2+best shout6217% hit
Fouls/90 1.97·YC 5
Last 520111
His card history is doing the talking.
ACA. CarboniMonza · CB
85high
1+best shout8580% hit2+4533% hit
Fouls/90 1.66·YC 3
Last 520114
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 19.7: gets away with it.
CCC. CasadeiTorino · CM
82medium
1+best shout8273% hit2+4627% hit
Fouls/90 2.20·YC 5
Last 521310
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 11: gets away with it.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningGSG. SimeoneTorino · ST
92high
1+best shout9295% hit2+4642% hit
Drawn/90 1.73·Dribbles/90 0.83
Last 513321
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
KBK. BaldéMonza · ST
89high
1+89no hit data2+best shout62no hit data
Drawn/90 3.51·Dribbles/90 1.05
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
MFM. FolorunshoMonza · CM
86high
1+best shout8688% hit2+5350% hit
Drawn/90 2.23·Dribbles/90 0.83
Last 512110
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningPOPedro ObiangMonza · CM
94high
1+best shout94100% hit2+5833% hit
Tackles/90 2.28·Int/90 0.95
Last 531211
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
EKE. KouadioMonza · CB
92high
1+best shout9289% hit2+6267% hit
Tackles/90 2.98·Int/90 2.46
Last 507154
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
ACA. CarboniMonza · CB
87high
1+best shout8773% hit2+6053% hit
Tackles/90 2.20·Int/90 1.15
Last 502412
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
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Preview build for review, not gambling advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Torino vs Monza: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Torino vs Monza?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Torino vs Monza?
We price 8 player markets for Torino vs Monza: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.