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Toronto FC vs DC United: MLS prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Toronto FC
MLS
Wednesday · 23:30 UTC
VS
BMO Field

DC United
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Toronto FC
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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DC United
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
TOR52.7%DRAW24.7%
DC 22.6%Most likely score1–111.7% · xG 1.80–1.10
Over 1.578.9%Over 2.554.8%Over 3.532.2%Under 2.545.2%BTTS56.2%
InputsClub strength rating 1279 vs 1203 (rating diff 76), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±90 / ±90 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition MLS, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.80, λA 1.10 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningTBT. BariboDC United · ST
64medium
1+best shout6468% hit2+2521% hit
SoT/90 1.05·Shots/90 2.41
Last 511100
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
DMD. MihailovićToronto FC · CAM
60low
1+best shout6055% hit2+2218% hit
SoT/90 1.07·Shots/90 1.91
Last 501100
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
DSD. SallóiToronto FC · LW/LM
56low
1+best shout5648% hit2+1812% hit
SoT/90 0.87·Shots/90 1.97
Last 501011
Gets into shooting positions.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningDSD. SallóiToronto FC · LW/LM
89high
1+best shout8984% hit2+5648% hit
Shots/90 1.97·SoT/90 0.87
Last 532111
Gets his shots off regularly.
JSJ. SargentToronto FC · ST
88high
1+best shout8881% hit2+5948% hit
Shots/90 2.08·SoT/90 0.87
Last 513304
Gets his shots off regularly.
TBT. BariboDC United · ST
87high
1+8795% hit2+best shout6258% hit
Shots/90 2.41·SoT/90 1.05
Last 531711
Gets his shots off regularly.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningRER. EdwardsToronto FC · LB
78high
Cards/90 0.35·YC 3
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
MPMatheus PereiraToronto FC · LB
75high
Cards/90 0.30·YC 7
Last 5✕✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
JSJ. StroudDC United · RM
74high
Cards/90 0.44·YC 13
Last 5✕✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningTBT. BariboDC United · ST
80medium
1+best shout8074% hit2+4747% hit
Fouls/90 1.54·YC 5
Last 500340
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
LBL. BartlettDC United · CB
79medium
1+best shout7973% hit2+4546% hit
Fouls/90 1.63·YC 10
Last 520311
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
NMNikola MarkovicDC United · CM
77medium
1+best shout7771% hit2+3935% hit
Fouls/90 3.57·YC 1
Last 511323
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 20: gets away with it.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningRLR. LaryeaToronto FC · RB
99high
1+9994% hit2+best shout7972% hit
Drawn/90 3.41·Dribbles/90 0.60
Last 511334
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
JSJ. SargentToronto FC · ST
85high
1+8581% hit2+best shout6171% hit
Drawn/90 1.38·Dribbles/90 1.09
Last 523342
Wins the odd free-kick in dangerous areas.
KNK. NonoDC United · RM/RB/CM
80medium
1+best shout8075% hit2+4842% hit
Drawn/90 1.37·Dribbles/90 0.55
Last 552002
Wins the odd free-kick in dangerous areas.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningSHS. HeftiDC United · RB
99high
1+9991% hit2+best shout8367% hit
Tackles/90 3.29·Int/90 1.25
Last 519341
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
PEPeglowDC United · CM/ST/LM
98high
1+9895% hit2+best shout7476% hit
Tackles/90 2.60·Int/90 0.80
Last 514232
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
RER. EdwardsToronto FC · LB
95high
1+9586% hit2+best shout8057% hit
Tackles/90 4.77·Int/90 1.98
Last 574201
A tackling machine, he’s everywhere.
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Preview build for review, not gambling advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Toronto FC vs DC United: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Toronto FC vs DC United?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Toronto FC vs DC United?
We price 8 player markets for Toronto FC vs DC United: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.