American Football Betting Strategy: Player Performance Markets
When it comes to American Football betting, it's easy to get bogged down in the strategy and overcomplicate your betting system. Where things are a little simpler (if not necessarily easier), however, are in the player performance markets.
The simplest of these markets is the 'scorers' market. The shortest odds are always on the wide receiver (usually the safest bet to score a touchdown), followed by the running backs, then any other player on the team. You'll usually find the longest odds available on the tight ends, as well as the quarterback. This is because he'll generally be the one feeding the passes out to the main scorers.
To give an example of the kind of odds to expect from the scorer markets, let's take a look at the matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals on 17th September 2013. Over at Coral Sports, the shortest first scorer odds were awarded to the wide-receiver of the favourite team, the Bengals. A.J. Green was rated 13/2 to score first or last, and 8/11 to score anytime. His opposite number at the Steelers, Antonio Brown, was rated at 10/1 to score first or last, and 6/4 to score anytime. The wide receivers, meanwhile, ranged from 8/1 - 12/1 to score first/last and 1/1 - 9/4 anytime.
Once you get into the stats, particularly later in the season, it makes more sense to move beyond the scorer market and look at American Football markets that cover the entire game. Of particular interest to stats fans are the 'pass yard' and 'receiving yards' markets''.
Sticking with the Steelers at the Bengals as our example, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was rated 20/23 to notch up less than 245.5 pass yards. Given that the Steelers struggled in their previous outing at Tennessee, a match in which Big Ben racked up just 191 pass yards, and that his season average for 2012 was 251 yards/game, it seems like a reasonable bet.
Pass Success Rate / Interceptions
In addition to examining past performance when looking at the 'pass yard market', other stats worth examining are 'pass success rate' market and 'interceptions' market, which give you a better idea of the quality of a quarterback's passing: a trait that's as valuable as the strength of his arm.
On the receiving end, Bengals wide receiver AJ Green was tipped to get over 90.5 receiving yards at 4/5, having registered an impressive 162 yards in the team's narrow loss to Chicago. The supporting stats of note here are receptions (passes caught) and receptions of 20+ yards; both of which are a good guide to consistency in the 'receiving yards' market.
The main drawback with these markets is the low odds. For the Steelers at the Bengals, none of the odds rose above 20/23. This is because the margins are so tight, and the stats are there for all to see. If you get really confident, and you're not averse to some risk, you can always build an accumulator to boost your odds by heading over to Bet365 Sports.
Recommended Betting Sites
Place £10, Get £40 in Free Bets + £10 on Casino
Promo Code: 10FREE
Welcome Bonus Bet £10 Get £20
Get up to £100 in Bet Credits!
Bet £10 and Get £20 Welcome Offer
Deposit £10 Get £10 Free Bet18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New players only. Free Bet is a one-time stake of £10, minimum odds of 1.5, stake is not returned. 10X wagering the winnings. Wagering occurs from real balance first. Wagering requirement is calculated on bonus bets only, wagering starts from real funds. Max conversion: £20. Valid for 7 days from issue. Excluded Skrill deposits. 18+. Play Responsibly www.begambleaware.org.
EXCLUSIVE: Bet £15, Get £10
Bet £10 Get £2018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply The Promotion operates as a £/€20 Surprise Bet when you place a bet of at least £/€10 on any market with odds greater than or equal to 1.50 as your first bet. The Promotion runs from 09/08/2021 / 12:00 (BST) until 31/12/2021 / 12:00 (BST) (the “Promotional Period”). The Promotion is only valid to: (a) new customers; (b) customers aged 18 years or over. To qualify for the Promotion, participant must deposit and place a £/€10 bet as their first bet on any market (excluding each way) in the sportsbook with odds greater than or equal to 1.50. Only original odds count toward the promotion. Supercharged odds do not count towards the promotion. An accumulation of smaller stakes will not count. Cashed out bets do not count towards this promotion. Only available once per customer. Rewards will be credited to qualifying participants within 48 hours after placing the qualifying bet. Potential winnings from the Surprise Bet are paid in withdrawable cash, excluding the stake. This offer cannot be used in conjunction with any other offer.
Bet £10, Get £10 Free Bet18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New players only. The qualifying bets to claim the Free Bet must have minimum odds of 3/1 (4.00) or higher and must be settled before triggering free bet. 18+. begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply
Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. Full T&C’s Apply. New customers on mobile only. 7 days to claim and stake £10 minimum bet at odds of 1.5 or greater to qualify. Free, void, cashed out or partially cashed out bets do not qualify. Max 3x £10 free bets credited on bet settlement. Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with selection odds of 1.3 or greater. Free bets are non-withdrawable and stake not returned with winnings. 7 day expiry.
Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.