Marsh Novices' Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 8th, 2021

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BEST 2021 MARSH NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS

• Aged six or seven
• Won one of last three starts
• Last ran in a Graded novice chase
• Had won left-handed
• Officially rated 144+

Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 Marsh Novices' Chase? Follow These Trends:

Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Marsh Novices' Chase, known as the JLT Novices' Chase up until the 2020 renewal.

We've analysed in detail every running of the Cheltenham Festival's newest novices' chase, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Marsh Novices' Chase.

Scroll down to read full details of all the key Marsh Novices' Hurdle trends to follow, beyond the top five.

Get the latest Marsh Novices' Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win Last Year's Marsh Novices' Chase?

Shortlisted via the Marsh Novices' Chase trends last year were Itchy Feet, Faugheen, and Midnight Shadow - Faugheen finishing second in the newest Cheltenham Festival novices' chase.

The Olly Murphy-trained Itchy Feet made the Marsh Novices' Chase shortlist by winning a ‘Key Race’ (see below), the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown and cantering to the top of the Cheltenham betting. Midnight Shadow finished second that day, his first defeat over 2m4-5f in four outings.

They ticked all the key trends, including all of the Top 5 listed above, which Faugheen fell short of by being 12.

But the 2015 Champion Hurdle winner was a unique case, who could not be overlooked, having gone unbeaten in three chase runs over 2m3f or further, including two Grade 1s, his latest 'Key Race' the Flogas Novices' Chase at Leopardstown.

His 10-length beating of Samcro was what knocked the Marsh Novices' Chase winner out of the trends selection. Like Faugheen, his older age (8), could be over-looked as his only other run at Cheltenham at been victory in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle.

But no other winner at that time had been beaten more than a short-head in their last run before Cheltenham, barring Black Hercules, who had fallen.

What the trends did not consider was the affect of Samcro's wind surgery after his defeat - and the Gordon Elliott factor (he's now 2/3 in this race!).

Second Melon was also discounted due to being well-beaten last time out. He had also never won over further than 2m1f, or at Cheltenham.

KEY MARSH NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS

10-year-trends (race first run 2011)

The last 10 winners…

• Last ran at least 32 days ago
• Won one of their last three starts
• Had three to five starts that season
• Had run in two to five novice chases
• Had won on a left-handed course
• Had three or more wins on a galloping track
• Last ran in a Graded novice chase
• Had run at Cheltenham before - six winning
• Had won at least once racing over a distance between 2m3f-2m6f

Nine of the last 10 winners...

• Were aged six or seven
• Finished in the first two last time out; exception Black Hercules (2016) fell
• Had won at least one Graded race - seven had won Grade 1s

The last 27 win and place positions

27/27 placed horses

• Won one of their last three starts

26/27 placed horses

• Had two or more wins on a galloping track
• Last ran in a Graded race

25/27 placed horses

• Were Irish or French-bred

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KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Marsh Novices' Chase)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Samcro Won 2020's Marsh Novices' Chase

Cheltenham Festival glory went to Samcro in the 2020 Marsh Novices' Chase, as the eight-year-old won a thrilling duel with Melon by just a nose.

Jockey Davy Russell first poked his head in front turning in, but the 4-1 shot was found wanting when Patrick Mullins pressed go on long-time leader Melon.

1.30 CHELTENHAM - 2020 MARSH NOVICES' CHASE RESULT

1. Samcro 4/1
2. Melon 14/1
3. Faugheen 3/1f

Two fences out Samcro was being ridden, Faugheen loomed and Melon was in control, but the leader messed up the last fence and Samcro pounced.

The win was a second in the Grade 1 for trainer Gordon Elliott, who denied Willie Mullins a fifth Marsh Novices' Chase win.

Faugheen finished a clear third, a length behind the first two and three and a quarter lengths clear of Mister Fisher.

Cheltenham 2020 Thursday Schedule

13:30 - Marsh Novices' Chase

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle trends

14:50 Ryanair Chase trends

15:30 STAYERS' HURDLE trends

16:10 Festival Plate Handicap Chase trends

16:50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle trends

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase trends