UK General Election 2019 Odds, Tips & Analysis

UK General Election 2019 Odds, Tips & Analysis

Quick Tips


In previewing this general election over several months, I’ve put up two positions available on the political betting sites - Conservatives to win most seats at 4-5, No Overall Majority at 4-6. According to the betting, the first is nailed on at 1-20 with BetVictor, with the second increasingly unlikely at 4-1 with Betway. So where are we and what result will emerge on Friday morning?

The polls are catastrophic for Labour. Opinium record them trailing by 15%, Survation by 14%. The latter was vindicated for its outlier predictions in 2017. At the other end of the scale though, the 6% lead with Comres would likely produce no overall majority.

Critically, there is little evidence of dramatic movement at this late stage. The Tories are consistently polling in the low forties. Labour have risen primarily due to transfers from Lib Dems - perhaps tactical considerations where Labour are better placed to beat the Tories.

Nevertheless, there are still numerous unknowns in this snap general election. The Brexit Party are still taking a decisive share in Labour-held constituencies. If it transfers late to the Tories, dozens more targets come into play. Equally if tactical voting reaches new heights (I expect it will), it has the potential to take dozens of Tory-held seats and deny them a majority. An interesting few weeks of political betting lies ahead.

Turnout Trends Could yet Favour Either Side

Plus as ever, differential turnout could blindside the polls, as we saw in 2017 and the 2016 referendum. Again, this could work either way. Remainers are better motivated and the rise in youth registration is a very positive signal. Nigel Farage keeps saying that many Leavers will stay at home, disgusted by the Brexit paralysis.

However on the other hand younger cohorts are always less reliable voters than the overwhelmingly, pro-Brexit and Tory, over sixties. They make up the bulk of postal votes, which have already been cast and are therefore not contingent upon what effect Storm Atiyah has on turnout this Thursday. A good Labour performance is reliant on getting voters out on the day.

Weather seems likelier to provide a gamechanger than anything from the campaign trail. It is hard to recall any particular moment having a serious impact - not the manifestos, TV debates, Jeremy Corbyn’s disastrous interview with Andrew Neil, or Boris Johnson bottling out of that grilling. Opinion seems entrenched.

It is easy to forget amidst all the drama of 2019 that for 18 months following the 2017 election, UK politics appeared to morphing into two fixed tribes, reflecting USA-style culture wars and polarisation. All that changed was a pair of short-lived, mid-term protest uprisings from the Lib Dems and Brexit Party, representing the purest form of either side.

Simplistically, those tribes equate to 40% each for Conservative and Labour. Add in the specifics of this race - Leaver defections from Labour on a much bigger scale than Remainers from the Tories, a deeply unpopular Labour leader, a Tory leader who has always had some crossover appeal - and the balance swings to roughly 45-35.

Several Dozen Marginals Are Extremely Close

So how does this translate into seats? Broadly, I’d say the Tories need to win by more than 7% for a majority. However the potential range is vast. There are dozens of Lab-Con marginals polling within a couple of percentage points. Local factors could make a huge difference.

The really worrying indicator for Labour is constituency polls. Survation record them 15% behind in Wrexham - a seat they’ve never lost. That equates to a 10% swing - compared to 4% nationally. The same figure as Great Grimsby a fortnight ago. It seems a fair ballpark to apply in Leave-voting Labour seats.

Of course that also means the swing in some other places is way below national swing. Across London and its suburbs, the Tories are going backwards. Both Putney and Chingford & Woodford Green are realistic gains. Labour’s problem is that for every Putney, there are ten Wrexhams.


Check Out: BetRegal Sports for latest odds, free bets and welcome bonus.


Regional Swings Offer Sound Constituency Betting Clues

As explained in earlier pieces on the best Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats bets, it makes better sense to back individual constituencies than the main seat lines markets, given all these regional dynamics.

The Tories are now just 1.65 on Betfair to win 340 or more seats. That is probably the right price, but I would much rather take similar or even bigger odds about seats that would surely be among any 340 tally.

I’ve already recommended five Conservative targets - Wakefield, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Ilford North and Harrow West. The first trio were confident, odds-on picks, the latter highly speculative outsiders.

I’m now adding four more - Bolsover, Wolverhampton South West, Birmingham Northfield, Heywood and Middleton.


Previous 2019 UK General Election Tips:


Recommended Betting Sites

shield of trust Secure trusted partners Trusted star verified Verified
  1. 100% Welcome Bonus up to £50 Promo Code: TONY50

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply In order to activate this bonus on the personal TonyBet account, please, enter the bonus code TONY50 when a deposit is made and wager your deposit 10 times on betting markets with odds of at least 1.65 within 30 days. This offer is available to new players who made the first deposit. All players must be 18+ years old and of a required legal age to gamble. Odd/even, no action (bets made on both sides of the same bet), cancelled bets, replicated bets and bets that have had their odds equated to 1 are not included into the bonus wagering. Visit Site
  2. Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus

  3. Bet £10 Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New UK customers only. Min bet £10 to receive £10 Free Bet (placed and settled 35 days from registration). Min odds of 3/5. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 35 days. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly, www.begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply Visit Site
  4. Get up to £100 in Free Bets + up to 100% in Boosts

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, New customers only. Deposit + bet £20-£100. Must Deposit £50 and opt in for marketing preferences for Boosts. Boosts credited 24 hours after deposit. Full T&Cs apply. Begambleware.org Visit Site
  5. Open Account Offer - Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365

  6. Bet £10, Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: €10, max €10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement.System bets no eligible. Click to see full T&Cs Visit Site
  7. EXCLUSIVE: Bet £15, Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: £10, max £10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply Visit Site
  8. Bet £10, Get £10 + 50 Extra Spins

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New customer offer; Place first £10 bet on sports with 3 legs at odds of 1.3 or greater per leg; Free Bet and Extra Spins credited after the qualifying bet has settled; Free Multiple Bet must contain 3 legs at odds of 1.3 or greater per leg; Free Bet and Extra Spin stakes not returned; No wagering requirements on winnings; £200 max win; T&C’s apply; 18+ Visit Site
  9. Bet £20, Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+ New Customers Only. Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is £20. Customers who deposit using Neteller, Paysafe, Skrill or Skril 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer.BeGambleaware.org Visit Site
  10. Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply Qualifying bet must be min odds of 1/2 and cannot be placed in-play or cashed out. E.g. Place a £10bet at minimum odds of 1/2. When that bet has been settled, you will be given a free £5 fixed odds bet to use that day. New customers only. See full Ts&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware Visit Site
alert Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of the UK's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully UK licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.

Betting Strategy Articles

DISCLAIMER: Online Wagering is illegal in some Jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to check your local regulations before playing online. GDC Media Ltd takes no responsibility for your actions.
© 2011-2021 GDC Media Limited. All Rights Reserved. Gambling.com is a registered trademark of GDC Media Limited.
Terms and Conditions  |   Privacy Policy

Asset 4 Android GET IT ON facebook Download_on_the_App_Store_Badge_US-UK_RGB_blk_4SVG_092917 twitter
×