AFL Betting Tips Round 3: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Round 3 Predictions:
- North Melbourne-Carlton over 173.5 points - 1.9 @ Bet365
- Sydney by 1-39 points - 2.2 @ PlayUp
- Hawthorn-Geelong under 169.5 points - 1.9 @ Unibet
It’s hard to believe that one of our favourite weekends of footy is here already!
The Easter long weekend sees one round of eight games spread across five days, with fans of the Giants and Suns missing out on the action thanks to those pesky multi-round byes.
Beginning with a Grand Final rematch in Brisbane, right through to what has been one of the most thrilling marquee fixtures of the last decade (Hawthorn v Geelong), there are lots of intriguing subplots to play out.
Reigning premiers Collingwood could become the first team in history to lose four home and away games in the month of March, while at the other end of the ladder, Sydney are expected to match their 4-0 start to 2021.
After the off-field week the AFL has had, the first bounce at The Gabba probably can’t come quick enough.
Our first game of interest is the Good Friday afternoon game at Marvel Stadium, where we are expecting North Melbourne’s woeful defence to contribute to a high-confidence totals play.
As well as our three Round 3 best bets, we’ve done the shopping for you to find you the best price across our favourite AFL betting sites for some popular player props to fill your same game multis or otherwise. Good luck!
North Melbourne v Carlton Blues, Friday, 4:20pm (AEDT)
This will be the seventh instance of the annual afternoon fixture that North Melbourne host as a fundraiser for the Good Friday Appeal, and while this now traditional game has been a tremendous success off the field, there has been little joy for the players on it.
In line with North’s overall dearth of success across the last decade, they have lost five of their six Good Friday games, the most recent of which was by 23 points to upcoming opponents Carlton in Round 4 last year.
That was early in their horrid stretch of 20 consecutive losses, and so far this year, there has been little to suggest things are about to get any better.
They conceded tons to both the Giants and the Dockers in their opening pair of matches, the latter of whom were only the ninth-heaviest scoring team in the league last season.
However, there was enough productivity in the midfield and accuracy up forward to see both games clear the total points mark comfortably.
In fact, they both conceded and scored totals in the 80s in each of their first two games, and if North allows them to score a little heavier than that, it could be enough to tip the total points over the 173.5 mark, which is offered at odds of 1.9 by exchange betting sites.
Charlie Curnow couldn’t achieve a third consecutive 3+ goal haul last week because of inaccuracy, but has hauls of six and three in his last two games against the Roos.
If you fancy that, 1.6 at Ladbrokes is the best price you’re likely to find.
Best Bet: Over 173.5 total points - 1.9 @ Bet365
Player Prop: Charlie Curnow 3+ goals - 1.6 @ Ladbrokes
Richmond Tigers v Sydney Swans, Sunday, 4:00pm (AEDT)
Richmond will head into a third straight game in Melbourne starting this round as one of six teams yet to win this season.
They got the better of the Swans by 13 points in July of last season, but lost the three head-to-head matchups prior to that, whilst that was only one of four wins Richmond have enjoyed from 15 matches as underdogs since the start of last season.
They have suffered an average losing margin of 25 points this season, while Sydney became the first team to notch up three victories within the 1-39 point bracket this year when they were too strong at home to Essendon.
Coupled with Richmond’s three defeats all also falling within that same 1-39 point margin, and there’s nothing yet this year to suggest a blowout is afoot.
Many AFL bookmakers now have Sydney as equal favourites alongside GWS Giants to win the 2024 Premiership after they already outclassed the well-credentialled pair of Collingwood and Melbourne, without blowing either of them out of the water.
Chad Warner continues to be amongst Sydney’s leading possession-getters, racking up at least 26 disposals in each of his first three games of 2024 (after doing so 12 times last year).
Given that he is as little as 1.36 with some betting sites to collect at least 25 touches again, the 1.7 that Bluebet were offering on Thursday evening looks to be tremendous ‘overs’.
Best Bet: Sydney by 1-39 points - 2.2 @ PlayUp
Player Prop: Chad Warner 25+ disposals - 1.7 @ Bluebet
Hawthorn Hawks v Geelong Cats, Monday, 3:20pm (AEDT)
It was once almost guaranteed to be an even matchup, with games between Hawthorn and Geelong more often than not finishing with a single-digit margin between the years of about 2007 to 2018 when both clubs were tremendously successful.
Hawthorn have fallen away since the retirement of their Premiership-winning crew but have still been competitive in parts against their old foes, winning two of the last five meetings.
Last year's match was one to forget, unless you’re a Cats fan, with Geelong triumphing by 82 points in this now traditional Easter Monday fixture.
The Cats have picked up two wins from their first two games, both by fewer than 20 points including one as an underdog in Adelaide last week.
It looks as though their recruiting has again unearthed some gems such as 21-year-old Rising Star nominee Ollie Dempsey.
Hawthorn, meanwhile, were humbled by Essendon - who aren’t close to Premiership contenders this year - and then thrashed by Melbourne with a score of just 38 points to their name.
The Hawks failed to cover the main line in six of their last seven games at the MCG, whereas Geelong look to have plenty of upside left to be discovered in 2024.
One particular player who continues to be busy at this ground is Geelong’s Oliver Henry, who has kicked 2+ goals in each of his last six games at the MCG.
Ladbrokes is again the best price available at time of writing to back him to do it again.
Best Bet: Hawthorn-Geelong under 169.5 points - 1.9 @ Unibet
Player Prop: Oliver Henry 2+ goals - 1.82 @ Ladbrokes
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