AFL Betting Tips Round 5: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Round 5 Predictions:
- GWS to lead after every quarter - 2.25 @ Bet365
- Under 165.5 total points - 1.9 @ PlayUp
- Under 174.5 total points - 1.9 @ Unibet
Betting sites around the country have reloaded their markets for another round of AFL football and this week there appears to be some opportunities to back some decent outsiders at the line or for the win.
With the exception of North Melbourne’s trip to Geelong, all games for Round 5 had handicaps around the 15-25 point mark at time of writing, the average win rate of 29% for underdogs this season could very well increase.
West Coast, North and Hawthorn were the only three outsiders this week yet to win as an underdog in 2024 (min. one game started) so it could be worth looking to some others such as Fremantle, who were 11 points short of going 4-0 last weekend.
Here are our three best bets for Round 5 as well as the best prices available across bookies for some player prop bets that are sure to be popular this weekend.
GWS Giants v St Kilda Saints, Saturday, 1:45pm (AEST)
The first of four games at Canberra’s Manuka Oval will see the second-heaviest scoring team of 2024 look to breach the second-toughest defensive unit of the season so far.
It comes as no surprise that the Giants have covered the line three times already this season given that last round’s 28-point defeat of the Gold Coast Suns in Adelaide was their lowest winning margin of the year so far.
It was also the Gold Coast who became the first team in 10 games to lose to GWS in Canberra, where they have struggled horrifically this decade.
But there’s no denying they’re a much more polished and professional outfit now and have proven themselves capable of winning anywhere, even if their run in has been on the softer side.
Those who are confident GWS will outclass their undermanned opponents can find some value in the ‘wire to wire’ market on Ladbrokes by backing them to lead at the end of every quarter, as they have done in all four of their victories so far.
St Kilda have been suspect to slow and/or inaccurate starts, trailing at the half-time break on all four occasions this year, and the Giants should break away with any lead they can get here.
You’ll find the best price for a 30+ disposal game for Stephen Coniglio, and whilst it’s no sure thing, he should come close having recorded at least 27 in each of his last seven wins as well as a massive 38 in their first Canberra outing of 2023.
Best Bet: GWS to lead after every quarter - 2.25 @ Bet365
Player Prop: Stephen Coniglio 30+ disposals - 2.5 @ Ladbrokes
Carlton Blues v Adelaide Crows, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)
A meeting of the undefeated and the winless will take place in Melbourne on Saturday afternoon, and yet despite the parity between the two teams on the ladder, AFL betting sites are giving Adelaide just a four-goal head start.
The Crows are out to break a four-game losing streak at the venue that started in 2022 and continued with a 116-68 loss to their upcoming opponents - one of five 40+ point defeats they suffered in that season.
Since covering the pre-game line on an impressive 15 occasions last year, Adelaide have done so just once in 2024, scoring a paltry average of just 57 points per game - the second-lowest average score of the season.
Their scoring power was weakened even further during the week when Sam Fogarty was ruled out with suspension, making their task of taking on an opposition that is conceding 77 points per game this season even tougher.
For that reason, we’re expecting the Crows to struggle to break the 10-goal barrier, and with Carlton notching up the century against Adelaide in just one of the last 12 H2Hs, this game may struggle to exceed 165 points.
He hasn’t reached a 30+ disposal count since their opening game against the Gold Coast, but Rory Laird has absolutely dominated the Blues in recent years, averaging 29.7 disposals against them across his entire career (13 H2Hs) and clearing 32+ in each of his last four such games.
Accept nothing less than 2.50 with exchange betting sites for a 30+ disposals bet.
Best Bet: Under 165.5 total points - 1.9 @ PlayUp
Player Prop: Rory Laird 30+ disposals - 2.5 @ Bluebet
West Coast Eagles v Richmond Tigers, Sunday, 4:00pm (AEST)
One rarely sees West Coast starting with a handicap as low as 20 points nowadays, even at home, but that’s just how badly 1-4 Richmond have been faring after a pretty woeful effort in a Gather Round loss to St Kilda last week.
Richmond are 3-2 at covering the pre-match line so far in 2024, and would do so again if they were to continue their trend of four straight H2H wins by 35+ point margins.
The pattern that catches our eye, particularly given West Coast’s scoring troubles that are underlined by an average of just 55 points scored per game this year, is the one that has seen all but one of Richmond’s last eight games finish ‘under’ the closing total points handicap (including four of five this year).
The Tigers went into this round eighth on the table for points scored per game but had already been held to just 60 points twice this season, with last weekend’s effort their worst of 2024 to date.
In terms of disposal markets, you could look towards Liam Duggan notching up 25+ touches as he has done in each of his last four home games.
But in terms of all-round consistency, we’re instead looking at Elliot Yeo who is on a run of three consecutive 25+ counts across all venues and is getting back towards his busiest self after two heavily interrupted seasons.
Best Bet: Under 174.5 total points - 1.9 @ Unibet
Player Prop: Elliot Yeo 25+ disposals - 1.7 @ Ladbrokes
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