Keir Starmer Odds Plunge As Labour Edge Towards Election Victory
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Betting sites have slashed their odds on Sir Keir Starmer being the next prime minister and leading Labour to a huge majority at the UK general election this summer.
Sir Keir has led Labour since 2020 and helped the UK’s main opposition party carve open a 27-point lead over the Conservatives.
Rishi Sunak’s decision to call an election for July 4 surprised many – largely because his Tory party have a huge mountain to climb even to draw level with Labour in the polls.
Labour have been on an election footing for months but had expected Mr Sunak to call the vote for the autumn.
Now, rather than scrambling into their campaign, it looks like Labour have already got off on the front foot.
One week into the campaign and Sir Keir has avoided any serious gaffes. His biggest headache has been regarding Labour MP Diane Abbott, who claims she is being “barred” from standing this time.
This, however, is nothing compared to the series of media blunders that have befallen Mr Sunak already in this campaign.
It means the political betting sites are firmly fixed on backing Sir Keir into Downing Street.
Starmer Odds
According to betting sites, Sir Keir has a 96.2% chance of being prime minister after the election. Boylesports recently slashed their already low odds from 1/10 to 1/25.
To put that into context, Manchester City were priced wider than this to beat Championship strugglers Huddersfield Town in the FA Cup this January. City won 5-0.
By contrast, Mr Sunak is now out at 10/1 to stroll into Downing Street following the election. His odds have widened from 8/1 at the start of the election campaign.
Sir Keir is also 1/10 to deliver a Labour majority this summer. That looks likely following the recent YouGov poll that shows a boost in Labour support already.
However, the reason those odds are slightly wider than Sir Keir’s personal odds is because of the slim chance Labour fail to secure a majority and go into coalition with the Lib Dems or perhaps the SNP.
Can Starmer Lose The Election?
We still have a month to go in this election campaign and that’s enough time for Labour to implode.
The benefit they have is that two-thirds of voters who backed the Conservatives at the 2019 election aren’t interested in backing Rishi Sunak here.
Labour are hoovering up the “Not Tory” vote despite Sir Keir’s poor approval ratings.
The labour leader just needs to stay out of trouble. A comprehensive manifesto and no outlandish policies will keep him out of any media drama.
So long as he keeps steadily campaigning then it’s hard to see how the Tories recoup their 27-point deficit.
Saying that, Mr Sunak has a chance to directly challenge Sir Keir during the first TV debate on June 4.
The hour-long debate is the prime minister’s chance to claw some support back. If Sir Keir flounders here then it could cost Labour a few percentage points.
Sir Keir would have to make a serious mistake to lose his advantage, though. Labour’s poll lead is as strong as it’s ever been under his stewardship and the country appears keen on change after 14 years of Conservative rule.
Even the right-wing newspapers have struggled to really pin anything bad on the opposition leader heading into this election.
The betting apps and the polls rarely lie. Sir Keir Starmer is almost certain to be the UK’s next prime minister.
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