Next UK Election Odds: Labour To Crush Tories After Sunak D-Day Mistake
UK betting sites are going all in on Labour winning the upcoming election after Rishi Sunak’s D-Day blunder triggered a fresh wave of criticism against the government.
Mr Sunak’s decision to cut short his time in Normandy to head back to the UK for an ITV interview – while other world leaders led the D-Day commemorations – hasn’t gone down well.
Even traditional Tory voters are now starting to drift towards Labour and a surging Reform UK.
It leaves the Conservatives stuck in the middle of two better-performing parties and Mr Sunak scrambling around for very limited support.
Politics betting sites have for months priced the Tories as rank outsiders to win the next UK election. Yet since Mr Sunak’s call for a July 4 vote, those odds have expanded even further.
So much so that Labour now seemingly have a 97.6% chance of securing a majority this summer.
The polls and betting odds all point to Labour, while the Conservatives are facing the prospect of annihilation at the ballot box.
UK Election Odds
There are four big markets on betting apps that punters are focusing on heading into this election. They are:
- Government after the next general election betting
- Next UK prime minister betting
- Conservative seats betting
- Labour seats betting
These markets paint a bad picture for Mr Sunak. It looks practically certain that Labour will form a government and secure a majority.
Meanwhile, speculation is raging over how damaging this vote could be for the Tories. Here, we examine the four relevant markets that feature next UK election odds:
Government Odds After The Election
Every single bookmaker believes Labour is on course for a majority. Unibet’s price at 1/40 is fairly standard across the market, although some bookies like Betfred are offering a price of 1/16.
That price reflects a 94.1% probability compared to 97.6%, so there’s really not much difference between the bookies.
Mr Sunak had hoped that his recent manifesto launch would turn the tide on the election and bring supporters flocking back.
A pledge to cut National Insurance again was his big offering. Yet voters appear to be tired of the Tories and their odds of governing after the election haven’t budged.
In fact, BetVictor now price a Conservative majority at 50/1 (2% probability).
That is a stinging indictment on the government and its leader as we come within three weeks of the election.
Even the chances of a Tory minority or coalition are slim. No other party, not even Reform UK, looks interested in touching them right now.
A Conservative-Reform coalition is priced at 100/1 with BetMGM. That just isn’t going to happen.
Next UK Prime Minister Odds
If we assume Labour win the upcoming election, then Sir Keir Starmer will be the next prime minister.
Vague rumours that the Tories would look to depose Mr Sunak and replace him with a new figurehead before the election were swiftly quashed.
Yet this is not a two-horse race anymore. Nigel Farage’s decision to run as leader of Reform in Clacton means the bookies are taking bets on him being PM after the election.
That looks highly unlikely right now but Mr Farage’s odds have already come in to 20/1, while Mr Sunak is sat on 16/1.
Of course, Sir Keir has a healthy lead in the polls and is priced at 1/50 with Betfred to be the next UK prime minister. Those odds carry a 98.04% probability.
Conservative Seats Betting
The high expectation of a Labour majority means bookmakers are offering a wider range of other markets too. One such market is betting on seats, particularly the number of seats the Conservatives stand to lose.
Some polls predicted a Conservative whitewash before Mr Farage entered the frame. Reform, though, suddenly look like a viable challenger to the Conservatives and that paints an even worse picture for Mr Sunak.
Whereas before it looked like the Conservatives may lose between 151-200 of its 344 MPs, now they look on course to drop 201+ seats.
A price of 1/7 is available across new betting sites for the Tories to fail to deliver even 143 MPs in the next parliament.
That is a remarkable situation to be in for one of history’s most successful democratic parties. Meanwhile, Reform are 3/1 to secure seven or more seats this summer.
Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
Labour Seats Betting
Much of the focus on Labour this summer has been whether they can deliver the same stinging victory that Tony Blair earned in 1997.
Sir Keir has tried to edge away from the comparisons but some polls suggest they could land more than 418 this time.
Betting sites expect Reform to pick up a few seats but the presence of Mr Farage’s party opens the door for more Labour wins under the first-past-the-post system.
No wonder Betfred have cut their odds on 450-499 Labour MPs to 5/4 in recent days.
Remember, Labour only had 206 MPs at the dissolution of Parliament. To more than double this in one election would be a remarkable achievement.
How The UK Election Works
UK general elections require voters to elect a constituency Member of Parliament from their area.
There are 650 constituencies in the UK that make up the House of Commons, which is the lower chamber in the country’s parliament.
A party therefore needs 326 MPs to form a majority. If no party has a mandate to form a majority then they can work together to form coalition governments – as happened in 2010 with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats – or try to govern as a minority.
Voters back a constituency candidate who is affiliated with a party, or they can vote for independents.
UK elections work on a first-past-the-post system. That means the winner doesn’t need 50% + 1 in order to win. They simply need more votes than any other candidate.
FPTP benefits the bigger parties because more people generally vote for their candidates, even though they might not win outright in their constituencies. A winning candidate may only earn a third of all votes cast, yet still represent that constituency for the next parliament.
Pollsters will track the voting throughout election day on July 4 and then release their exit polls at 10pm. Each constituency then begins their count through the night, and a winner is usually announced in the morning.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the next UK election?
The next UK election will take place on Thursday 4 July. Voters can apply to cast a postal vote no later than 11 working days before the election, and a proxy vote no later than six working days. Most voters will vote in person on the day.
How often is there a UK election?
UK general elections cannot be held more than five years apart because a single ‘parliament’ has a maximum five-year lifespan. However, a snap election can be held so long as it has the backing of two-thirds of MPs. Prime ministers often call elections in the final year of a parliament, usually in the spring or summer months.
Is there an election if the Prime Minister resigns?
There is no obligation for Parliament to call a new UK election if the Prime Minister resigns their office. This is because the country votes for a party to govern, rather than an individual. This was the case in 2022 when first Boris Johnson and then Liz Truss resigned as prime minister.
Who will win the 2024 UK election?
Labour look set to win the UK election. Bookmakers believe Labour could be heading towards a landslide victory, while the Conservatives could lose more than half of their current 344 seats. Labour will also challenge the SNP in Scotland, while the Lib Dems, Greens and Reform UK are all looking to make an impact at the expense of the Tories.
What are the latest UK politics odds?
The latest UK politics betting odds back Labour at 1/40 to win the 2024 election with a majority. The Conservatives are 50/1 to form a majority government. Sir Keir Starmer is 1/50 to be the next UK prime minister, while Rishi Sunak is 16/1 to keep his job in Downing Street.
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