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Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: Europa League prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Ararat-Armenia
Europa League
Tomorrow · 16:45 UTC
VS
Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium

AZ Alkmaar
Match status:
We can't preview this one yet.
Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Ararat-Armenia
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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AZ Alkmaar
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely tackle99S. Resink
AZ · CM
AZ · CMMost likely foul90K. Muradyan
ARA · CM
ARA · CMMost likely booking86M. Chávez
AZ · CB
AZ · CBMost likely fouled86Benny
ARA · CM
ARA · CMMost likely shot80M. Meerdink
AZ · ST
AZ · STMost likely SoT68J. Hornkamp
AZ · ST
AZ · STMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
ARA38.7%DRAW25.6%
AZ 35.7%Most likely score1–111.8% · xG 1.56–1.49
Over 1.581.2%Over 2.558.3%Over 3.535.7%Under 2.541.7%BTTS61.6%
InputsClub strength rating 1500 vs 1578 (rating diff -78), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±150 / ±120 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition Europa League, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.56, λA 1.49 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningJHJ. HornkampAZ Alkmaar · ST
68medium
1+best shout6850% hit2+3625% hit
SoT/90 1.83·Shots/90 1.03
Last 55100
High shot volume: he tests the keeper most weeks.
MMM. MeerdinkAZ Alkmaar · ST
61low
1+best shout6175% hit2+2638% hit
SoT/90 1.17·Shots/90 2.40
Last 512121
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
RDR. DaalAZ Alkmaar · ST
52low
1+best shout5263% hit2+1619% hit
SoT/90 0.82·Shots/90 0.97
Last 511001
Gets into shooting positions.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningMMM. MeerdinkAZ Alkmaar · ST
80medium
1+best shout8088% hit2+5975% hit
Shots/90 2.40·SoT/90 1.17
Last 532121
Gets his shots off regularly.
BKB. KovacsAZ Alkmaar · ST
73medium
1+best shout7343% hit2+4829% hit
Shots/90 4.20·SoT/90 2.17
Last 500220
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
WBW. BouzianeAZ Alkmaar · LW
73medium
1+best shout73no hit data2+41no hit data
Shots/90 2.01·SoT/90 0.80
Gets his shots off regularly.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningMCM. ChávezAZ Alkmaar · CB
86high
Cards/90 0.42·YC 13
Last 5✕✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
BPBruno PereiraArarat-Armenia · CB
79high
Cards/90 0.95·YC 4
His card history is doing the talking.
AOA. OufkirAZ Alkmaar · ST
67high
Cards/90 0.41·YC 7
Last 5✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningKMK. MuradyanArarat-Armenia · CM
90high
1+90100% hit2+best shout5967% hit
Fouls/90 3.13·YC 1
Last 5331
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
BEBennyArarat-Armenia · CM
82medium
1+best shout820% hit2+480% hit
Fouls/90 1.52·YC 0
Last 51
The opponent matchup sharpens the risk.
PKP. KoopmeinersAZ Alkmaar · CM
82medium
1+best shout8273% hit2+5460% hit
Fouls/90 1.51·YC 6
Last 531332
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 13.8: gets away with it.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningBEBennyArarat-Armenia · CM
86high
1+best shout860% hit2+550% hit
Drawn/90 2.03·Dribbles/90 0.84
Last 51
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
RDR. DaalAZ Alkmaar · ST
84medium
1+best shout8481% hit2+4844% hit
Drawn/90 2.05·Dribbles/90 2.68
Last 532131
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
WBW. BouzianeAZ Alkmaar · LW
83medium
1+best shout83no hit data2+48no hit data
Drawn/90 2.04·Dribbles/90 3.02
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningSRS. ResinkAZ Alkmaar · CM
99high
1+99no hit data2+best shout79no hit data
Tackles/90 2.60·Int/90 1.00
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
PKP. KoopmeinersAZ Alkmaar · CM
97high
1+9787% hit2+best shout7967% hit
Tackles/90 2.96·Int/90 0.95
Last 505531
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
MCM. ChávezAZ Alkmaar · CB
96high
1+9686% hit2+best shout8179% hit
Tackles/90 4.08·Int/90 1.11
Last 535503
A tackling machine, he’s everywhere.
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Preview build for review, not gambling advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
We price 8 player markets for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.