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Everton vs Chelsea: Premier League prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Everton
Premier League
Sat 17 Oct · 11:30 UTC
VS
Hill Dickinson Stadium

Chelsea
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Everton
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Chelsea
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely fouled99M. Palestra
CHE · RW/RWB
CHE · RW/RWBMost likely tackle99J. Garner
EVE · CM
EVE · CMMost likely shot89João Pedro
CHE · ST
CHE · STMost likely foul87M. Caicedo
CHE · CM
CHE · CMMost likely booking69M. Caicedo
CHE · CM
CHE · CMMost likely SoT61M. Rogers
CHE · ST
CHE · STMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
EVE36.4%DRAW24.9%
CHE38.8%Most likely score1–111.1% · xG 1.59–1.64
Over 1.583.7%Over 2.562.1%Over 3.539.6%Under 2.537.9%BTTS64.6%
InputsClub strength rating 1585 vs 1637 (rating diff -52), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±120 / ±120 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition Premier League, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.59, λA 1.64 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningMRM. RogersChelsea · ST
61low
1+best shout6165% hit2+2118% hit
SoT/90 0.94·Shots/90 2.33
Last 510211
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
CPC. PalmerChelsea · ST
59low
1+best shout5959% hit2+3241% hit
SoT/90 1.07·Shots/90 2.71
Last 522000
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
JPJoão PedroChelsea · ST
56low
1+best shout5654% hit2+2015% hit
SoT/90 0.98·Shots/90 2.35
Last 512012
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningJPJoão PedroChelsea · ST
89high
1+89100% hit2+best shout6262% hit
Shots/90 2.35·SoT/90 0.98
Last 515112
Gets his shots off regularly.
MRM. RogersChelsea · ST
86high
1+8688% hit2+best shout6565% hit
Shots/90 2.33·SoT/90 0.94
Last 530242
Gets his shots off regularly.
CPC. PalmerChelsea · ST
85high
1+8582% hit2+best shout7277% hit
Shots/90 2.71·SoT/90 1.07
Last 535320
Gets his shots off regularly.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningMCM. CaicedoChelsea · CM
69high
Cards/90 0.33·YC 19
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
TDT. DiblingEverton · CAM/LW
66high
Cards/90 0.35·YC 2
Last 5✕✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
CAC. AlcarazEverton · CAM
65high
Cards/90 0.56·YC 6
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His card history is doing the talking.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningMCM. CaicedoChelsea · CM
87high
1+best shout8782% hit2+5246% hit
Fouls/90 1.77·YC 19
Last 531201
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
MRM. RogersChelsea · ST
82medium
1+best shout8288% hit2+4247% hit
Fouls/90 1.36·YC 10
Last 522001
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
MRM. RöhlEverton · CM
73medium
1+best shout7360% hit2+4150% hit
Fouls/90 2.21·YC 1
Last 520012
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix. Foul-to-card ratio 27: gets away with it.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningMPM. PalestraChelsea · RW/RWB
99high
1+990% hit2+best shout880% hit
Drawn/90 3.13·Dribbles/90 2.03
Last 50
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
JPJoão PedroChelsea · ST
93high
1+9392% hit2+best shout6362% hit
Drawn/90 2.14·Dribbles/90 1.36
Last 504612
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
VBV. BarcoChelsea · CM
88high
1+8867% hit2+best shout6767% hit
Drawn/90 2.72·Dribbles/90 1.17
Last 500422
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningJGJ. GarnerEverton · CM
99high
1+9994% hit2+best shout8167% hit
Tackles/90 3.17·Int/90 1.41
Last 516105
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
MCM. CaicedoChelsea · CM
93high
1+9373% hit2+best shout6936% hit
Tackles/90 2.84·Int/90 1.61
Last 510004
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
KDK. Dewsbury-HallEverton · CM
92high
1+best shout9289% hit2+6161% hit
Tackles/90 1.86·Int/90 0.39
Last 540222
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
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Preview build for review, not gambling advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Everton vs Chelsea: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Everton vs Chelsea?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Everton vs Chelsea?
We price 8 player markets for Everton vs Chelsea: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.