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Millwall vs Lincoln: Championship prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Millwall
Championship
Sat 17 Oct · 11:30 UTC
VS
The Den

Lincoln
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Millwall
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Lincoln
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely tackle99B. House
LIN · CM
LIN · CMMost likely foul95B. House
LIN · CM
LIN · CMMost likely shot91M. Ivanović
MIL · ST
MIL · STMost likely fouled84J. Coburn
MIL · ST
MIL · STMost likely booking80B. House
LIN · CM
LIN · CMMost likely SoT62M. Ladefoged
LIN · ST
LIN · STMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
MIL51.2%DRAW27.5%
LIN21.3%Most likely score1–013.0% · xG 1.52–0.89
Over 1.570.0%Over 2.543.0%Over 3.521.9%Under 2.557.0%BTTS46.7%
InputsClub strength rating 1564 vs 1500 (rating diff 64), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±120 / ±150 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition Championship, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 1.52, λA 0.89 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningMLM. LadefogedLincoln · ST
62medium
1+best shout6240% hit2+280% hit
SoT/90 3.06·Shots/90 6.81
Last 501001
High shot volume: he tests the keeper most weeks.
MMM. MeliaLincoln · ST
61low
1+best shout6125% hit2+280% hit
SoT/90 1.39·Shots/90 2.34
Last 50010
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
JCJ. CoburnMillwall · ST
61low
1+best shout6157% hit2+2321% hit
SoT/90 1.00·Shots/90 2.10
Last 503110
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningMIM. IvanovićMillwall · ST
91high
1+best shout9190% hit2+5630% hit
Shots/90 2.38·SoT/90 0.99
Last 511311
Gets his shots off regularly.
MLM. LadefogedLincoln · ST
83medium
1+8360% hit2+best shout6860% hit
Shots/90 6.81·SoT/90 3.06
Last 502024
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
JCJ. CoburnMillwall · ST
83medium
1+best shout8371% hit2+5750% hit
Shots/90 2.10·SoT/90 1.00
Last 504220
Gets his shots off regularly.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningBHB. HouseLincoln · CM
80high
Cards/90 0.36·YC 12
Last 5✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
IVI. VarfolomeevLincoln · CM
73high
Cards/90 0.43·YC 12
Last 5✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
RLR. LeonardMillwall · CB
72high
Cards/90 0.31·YC 7
Last 5✕✕✕✕✕
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningBHB. HouseLincoln · CM
95high
1+9582% hit2+best shout7159% hit
Fouls/90 3.06·YC 12
Last 503140
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
FDF. DraperLincoln · ST
94high
1+9483% hit2+best shout7067% hit
Fouls/90 3.26·YC 12
Last 504611
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
JMJenson MetcalfeMillwall · CM
89high
1+8992% hit2+best shout5854% hit
Fouls/90 1.83·YC 13
Last 511420
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningJCJ. CoburnMillwall · ST
84medium
1+best shout8471% hit2+4836% hit
Drawn/90 1.84·Dribbles/90 0.27
Last 511222
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
MMM. MeliaLincoln · ST
81medium
1+best shout8150% hit2+500% hit
Drawn/90 2.12·Dribbles/90 0.77
Last 50110
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
JMJenson MetcalfeMillwall · CM
80medium
1+best shout8062% hit2+5246% hit
Drawn/90 1.72·Dribbles/90 0.64
Last 500313
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningBHB. HouseLincoln · CM
99high
1+9988% hit2+best shout7765% hit
Tackles/90 3.36·Int/90 0.83
Last 524033
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
JMJenson MetcalfeMillwall · CM
97high
1+97100% hit2+best shout7977% hit
Tackles/90 2.63·Int/90 0.65
Last 532331
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
CMC. McGrandlesLincoln · CM
91high
1+9171% hit2+best shout7965% hit
Tackles/90 2.86·Int/90 1.30
Last 502500
A busy defensive presence who throws himself in.
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Preview build for review, not gambling advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Millwall vs Lincoln: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Millwall vs Lincoln?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Millwall vs Lincoln?
We price 8 player markets for Millwall vs Lincoln: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.