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Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt: Champions League prediction, stats and bet builder tips

Napoli
Champions League
Yesterday · 19:00 UTC
VS
Maradona Stadium

Bodo/Glimt
Match status:
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Neither club plays in a competition we cover, so there are no league tables, no priced markets and nothing behind a projection. Rather than show you numbers we can't stand behind, we've held this fixture back.
Every qualifying player, ranked by league-strength-weighted per-90. Tap any player to expand their season + last-10 detail.
Rank
Who
SoT/90
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Last meeting
No previous meeting between these clubs on record yet.
Napoli
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Bodo/Glimt
averages
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Defensive
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Offensive
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Shooting
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Goals & assists
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Active team and player runs for both clubs. All comps counts every game the club plays; filter it to one competition, or to league form when the two clubs play in different divisions. Longest streaks first.
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Substitute appearances only count when the player hits the line; a miss off the bench never breaks a run.
Every previous meeting between these clubs on record. Tap a meeting for the full player detail.
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Top picksStarting XI only
Highest-confidence selections across every marketMost likely shot99S. McTominay
NAP · CM
NAP · CMMost likely tackle98P. Berg
BOD · CM
BOD · CMMost likely fouled81S. McTominay
NAP · CM
NAP · CMMost likely foul64G. Di Lorenzo
NAP · CB
NAP · CBMost likely SoT60R. Højlund
NAP · ST
NAP · STMost likely booking56Luca Marianucci
NAP · CB
NAP · CBMatch outcome
Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson
NAP77.3%DRAW14.2%
BOD8.6%Most likely score3–09.7% · xG 3.07–0.93
Over 1.590.3%Over 2.573.9%Over 3.552.4%Under 2.526.1%BTTS58.0%
InputsClub strength rating 1766 vs 1346 (rating diff 420), built from league table position and recent form.Uncertainty bands ±120 / ±120 widen the Poisson tails for low-data sides.Competition Champions League, home advantage applied to the home lambda.
How the markets fall outλH 3.07, λA 0.93 feed a 0-5 probability grid with Dixon-Coles low-score correction.1X2 sums the grid by sign of (x − y); goal lines sum cells where x + y ≥ threshold; BTTS sums cells with x > 0 AND y > 0.Mode scoreline is the highest single-cell probability on the grid.
Goals and form
The record behind the projection, at this venue and in this competition
Home
at home
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Away
away
Team stats aren't available for this team yet.
Corners
Goal or assist
Only genuine shouts · model + recent form · click any pick for reasoningShot on target 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningRHR. HøjlundNapoli · ST
60low
1+best shout6044% hit2+2011% hit
SoT/90 0.83·Shots/90 1.97
Last 510011
Gets into shooting positions.
SMS. McTominayNapoli · CM
57low
1+best shout5747% hit2+1713% hit
SoT/90 0.99·Shots/90 2.96
Last 510101
A regular goal threat who works the keeper.
ASAlisson SantosNapoli · ST
57low
1+best shout5753% hit2+2127% hit
SoT/90 1.60·Shots/90 3.53
Last 500103
High shot volume: he tests the keeper most weeks.
Shots 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningSMS. McTominayNapoli · CM
99high
1+99100% hit2+best shout7160% hit
Shots/90 2.96·SoT/90 0.99
Last 511126
Gets his shots off regularly.
RHR. HøjlundNapoli · ST
99high
1+9989% hit2+best shout7467% hit
Shots/90 1.97·SoT/90 0.83
Last 531232
Gets his shots off regularly.
ASAlisson SantosNapoli · ST
92high
1+best shout9287% hit2+5353% hit
Shots/90 3.53·SoT/90 1.60
Last 532316
A high-volume shooter who lets fly most weeks.
Yellow card
Top picks · click any pick for the reasoningLMLuca MarianucciNapoli · CB
56medium
Cards/90 0.24·YC 2
His workrate keeps him in the foul mix.
BBB. BadiashileNapoli · CB
55medium
Cards/90 0.28·YC 5
Last 5✕✕✕
His card history is doing the talking.
SAS. AuklendBodo/Glimt · CM
55medium
Cards/90 0.23·YC 3
Last 5✕✕✕✕
The opponent matchup sharpens the risk.
Fouls committed 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningGLG. Di LorenzoNapoli · CB
64low
1+best shout6458% hit2+268% hit
Fouls/90 1.17·YC 4
Last 521010
The opponent matchup sharpens the risk. Foul-to-card ratio 12.3: gets away with it.
RMRafa MarínNapoli · CB
63low
1+best shout6375% hit2+3150% hit
Fouls/90 0.97·YC 5
Last 532001
The opponent matchup sharpens the risk.
AAA. Zambo AnguissaNapoli · CM
58low
1+best shout5850% hit2+3040% hit
Fouls/90 1.23·YC 1
Last 502000
The opponent matchup sharpens the risk. Foul-to-card ratio 25: gets away with it.
Fouls drawn 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningSMS. McTominayNapoli · CM
81medium
1+best shout8160% hit2+5447% hit
Drawn/90 2.02·Dribbles/90 0.94
Last 500001
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
RHR. HøjlundNapoli · ST
78medium
1+best shout7861% hit2+4433% hit
Drawn/90 1.55·Dribbles/90 0.43
Last 500312
Drawn fouls are a regular part of his game.
SAS. AuklendBodo/Glimt · CM
78medium
1+best shout78100% hit2+4150% hit
Drawn/90 2.96·Dribbles/90 1.25
Last 533131
Fouls follow him around: defenders can’t live with him.
Tackles 1+ / 2+
Top picks · best shout highlighted · click any pick for reasoningPBP. BergBodo/Glimt · CM
98high
1+best shout9887% hit2+6547% hit
Tackles/90 2.42·Int/90 0.95
Last 507313
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
HEH. EvjenBodo/Glimt · CM
92high
1+best shout920% hit2+650% hit
Tackles/90 2.37·Int/90 0.82
Last 511
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
FBF. BjørkanBodo/Glimt · CB
92high
1+best shout9280% hit2+6353% hit
Tackles/90 2.19·Int/90 0.77
Last 501221
Gets through a steady volume of tackles.
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Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt: how to use this page
How do I use BetBuilderAI to build a good bet on Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt?
Start from the numbers, not the names. Open Raw data to see every player in the fixture ranked by hit rate or per-90 for the prop you want, check Streaks for who is already on a run, then add your legs in Build your bet, where the combined price accounts for them being correlated.
Each tab does one job:
- Build your bet. assemble the slip leg by leg and the combined price accounts for the legs being correlated, which a naive multiplication does not. Golden picks, value picks and plays flag where the model disagrees with the bookmaker, and you can push a finished slip to the community and climb the tipster leaderboard.
- Predictions. the model’s call on every market above, with the components it used rather than just the output.
- Streaks. every active run in the game, so you can see who has made 1+ tackle in thirty straight matches and whether they did it against this opponent last time. Filter by competition, player or team.
- H2H. the recent meetings between these two, with average goals, the scorelines, the both-teams-to-score rate, and which players hit which props in the last two.
- Raw data. every player in the fixture as a filterable list, sortable by hit rate or per-90, so you can pull the ten most-fouling players in the game and take one straight into your builder.
- Stat pack. a shareable snapshot, the top five in each category with their last-five hit rates, for sending to whoever you are betting with.
Which player props can I price for Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt?
We price 8 player markets for Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt: anytime goalscorer, goal or assist, shots 1+ and 2+, shots on target 1+ and 2+, tackles 1+ and 2+, fouls committed 1+ and 2+, fouls won 1+ and 2+, to be booked. Each one shows the season hit rate, the per-90 rate and the last five results for every player in the fixture, so you can judge a leg before it costs you.
Team markets alongside them:
- match result
- over and under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals
- both teams to score
- most likely scoreline
- total corners
Do you show players who are not in the starting XI?
Not once we know who is. Backing a player who starts on the bench is the most expensive mistake in a bet builder and the easiest to make, because most stats pages never update. Until the team sheets are published we show every fit player, then every board filters itself to the confirmed XI.
- Injured and suspended players come off every prediction, cup ties included.
- Boards carry a "starting XI only" marker once a team sheet is confirmed.
- Lineups land about an hour before kick-off.