Cheltenham Tips: Champion Hurdle Betting Odds, Preview And Predictions
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Champion Hurdle Tip:
No horse going into the 2023 Cheltenham Festival carries the level of expectation that Constitution Hill does in the Champion Hurdle.
There is an overwhelming confidence with betting sites that he will not only win, but he’ll win by clear daylight and that’s because many believe this horse is potentially the best any of us have ever seen.
Understandably, ante-post betting for the Champion Hurdle is heavily weighted towards a Constitution Hull success.
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A week before the tapes go up at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival, Nicky Henderson’s stable star is top price 4/11 to extend his unbeaten run and land the most prestigious prize of his career to date.
So, is it a straightforward point and shoot job for the favourite? Let’s take a closer look.
Over The Hill And Gone?
Quiz question: what does this number sequence represent? 14,12,22,12,17?
They are, of course, the winning distances of Constitution Hill’s five starts under rules.
It is quite extraordinary that this relatively young horse has already won four Grade 1 prizes, including a stunning success in last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, despite having only raced five times under rules.
And which horse did he swat aside with consummate ease in that Supreme?
None other than stablemate Jonbon, who was left trailing in his wake but has since gone on to thrive over fences and who may well have won the Arkle Chase by the time Constitution Hill heads to post for his Champion Hurdle assignment.
2020 Champion Hurdler and multiple top-flight winner Epatante has twice seen Constitution Hill sail off into the sunset in Grade 1’s this season, despite getting the mares’ allowance on each occasion, and she is second favourite to win what looks a hot renewal of the Mares’ Hurdle.
Simply put, no horse has been able to live with Constitution Hill so far. When he goes through the gears, and he’s got more gears than any other horse, then the game is up for his rivals.
His jumping isn’t perfect but it’s nothing to worry about and he’s done it on ground ranging from heavy to good to soft.
Nicky Henderson took him out of the Coral Hurdle when ground conditions were officially described as good, but it’s hard to believe even drying ground would be a problem for him given the way he scorched to victory under quickish conditions at this meeting 12 months ago.
Official ratings have him a 6lb better horse than State Man and it’s easy to see why some think that underestimates Constitution Hill.
However, he’s never raced against State Man, so it’s a new challenge and one that shouldn’t be underestimated because State Man is now the best two-miler in Ireland and in any other year, he’d be a worthy Champion Hurdle favourite.
State Man Heads The ‘Dangers’
Ultimately, this race is about whether any of Constitution Hill’s rivals are capable of running to a level that would make a race of it with the favourite.
The answer is probably no, because although State Man is an improving hurdler who heads to Cheltenham having won four Grade 1 hurdles on the bounce - including the Irish Champion Hurdle last time - he’s not posted any numbers that make him comparable to Constitution Hill.
State Man looks the complete hurdler now. He travels and jumps in the manner you would expect from a top-class two-miler, he’s tactically versatile and he’s already done it at Cheltenham having hacked up in last year’s County Hurdle.
The problem is, unless he takes another sizeable step forward, State Man simply doesn’t look capable of living with an on-song Constitution Hill.
There is no disgrace in that and he could easily be best of the rest, but there is no value in his price from the place perspective so he doesn’t make obvious betting appeal.
Can Vauban Step Up?
One thing is for sure, Vauban cannot possibly win the Champion Hurdle or even go close unless he takes his form to a new level.
Last year’s Triumph Hurdle hero has been comprehensively beaten by State Man on both starts this season and on these occasions his prospects were weakened by some far from fluent jumping.
If he can iron out the jumping errors, then he has the ability to step up and at least get closer to his stablemate.
However, his inability to negotiate the hurdles speedily and accurately is a real concern going into a Champion Hurdle.
Best Of The Home Challenge
With Epatante likely to go down the mares’ route, the outstanding British challenger to Constitution Hill appears to be I Like To Move It, who posted a top-class performance in winning the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle by a whopping 17 lengths last month.
A Racing Post Rating of 165 compares favourably to anything achieved by State Man so far in his career.
We also know that I Like To Move It likes it around Prestbury Park because he already has three Cheltenham wins to his name, all of which have come on the Old course – the same course as the Champion Hurdle is run on.
Drying ground is going to be right up I Like To Move It’s street and he looks the value each-way play at 16/1 with horse racing betting sites because that price will almost certainly contract markedly when several of these come out at the final declaration stage.
2023 Champion Hurdle Verdict
Constitution Hill is impossible to oppose but he’s not a punting proposition for most, although he will obviously be the cornerstone of a millions of multiples on betting apps through the week.
The market suggests State Man is the horse to give the favourite most to do, but that’s by no means a formality.
A better-value Champion Hurdle wager might just be to back I Like To Move It each-way at 16/1 or back him in the ‘Without The Favourite’ market, in which he is a 4/1 chance.
If that doesn’t float your boat, the Constitution Hill/I Like To Move It straight forecast looks a solid alternative.
Just get I Like To Move it onside so that you make a profit if he finishes second to the favourite.
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