Tennis Betting Tips: Back Fritz And Medvedev To Win Their Groups in Turin

Tennis Betting Tips: Back Fritz And Medvedev To Win Their Groups in Turin
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Tennis Betting Tips:


The culmination of the 2022 ATP Tour season gets underway this weekend at the Pala Alpitour in Turin at the Nitto ATP Tour Finals.

The top eight male players in the world in this year’s race (well, top-seven, plus Novak Djokovic, who qualifies as a major winner) will go head-to-head for the top prize, which is $4,740,300 for any man who wins the tournament and remains undefeated. 

So, there’s plenty of cash at stake this week, with $320,000 the prize money just for playing three matches, so it’s a lucrative few days for the elite of men’s tennis. Here, we take a look at the best options to pursue on betting sites.

Conditions And Trends

They play on a GreenSet indoor hard court at the Pala Alpitour that last year was pretty quick according to the stats: 85% holds of serve and 74.5% first serve points won.

That (and the 0.83 aces per game mark) suggests it’s on the quick side, with Stuttgart on the grass this summer only producing 0.77 aces per game, but Stuttgart did see 88% holds and 77.5% first serve points won, so it’s not as quick as somewhere like Stuttgart.

All that being said, they may change the conditions this year, although all of the last four Tour Finals have produced either 85% or 84% holds, so I’d expect it to be a decent paced court again.

As far as trends are concerned, there have been a fair few big-priced winners and finalists in recent years, with Andy Murray in 2016 the last time a member of the so-called ‘Big Four’ won the title.

Rafa Nadal has never won the title, while Novak Djokovic’s last win came in 2015 and Roger Federer’s last title here was in 2011.

The last five champions have been Alexander Zverev (twice), Stefanos Tsitsipas, Grigor Dimitrov and Daniil Medvedev, so there has been some value around for outright bets on tennis betting sites.

And if we look at the form of some of the champions, they’ve often arrived at the Finals with little in the way of impressive results.

Zverev hadn’t made a final in any of his seven previous tournaments when he won the 2018 Finals, although his form was much better when he won it again in 2021.

Tsitsipas had made one final in his previous 14 tournaments when he won it in 2019 and in 2020 Medvedev won Paris and the Finals back-to-back having not made a final for a year (although it was a shorter season due to Covid). 

As far as match betting is concerned, it’s usually a tournament I overlook, with a paltry 29% underdog winners on average in the last decade, with that total being boosted by one year (2019) when 10 of 15 underdogs won.

Every other year in the last decade, either three, four or five betting underdogs have won out of 15 matches, so it’s been a tournament where value is hard to find. 

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Red Group

The draw has seemingly thrown together a really tough-looking group and one easier one, with the Red Group of Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev looking the harder of the two groups.

The advantage that Djokovic has this year, compared to previous occasions at the Tour Finals is that he should have more energy this time.

In 2022 he’s only played 44 matches coming into the Finals, whereas last year he’d played 54 matches before the Finals and in 2019 he’d played 62 (2020 was affected by Covid). 

And having won 13 of his 14 main level matches since Wimbledon the Serb has to be the favourite to land a first Finals crown since 2015.

I’m overlooking Rublev due to his weak record of 8-14 win/loss versus top-five ranked opposition and the interesting one in this group is Tsitsipas.

There is a scenario whereby the Greek could end the season as world number one if he wins every single match and lifts the title this week, but that does seem a tall order in a group as tough as this one.

Tsitsipas is 2-9 win/loss versus Djokovic (although he could have won a couple more than he did of those 11 matches) and 3-7 versus Medvedev (although he’s won three of the last five), so it would be some feat for Tsitsipas to end the year as number one.

He’s lost seven of his last nine matches on hard courts versus top-five ranked opposition and all of his last seven versus Djokovic and the stats of that head-to-head show the issue that the Greek has against elite opponents.

Tsitsipas has broken Djokovic only 13% of the time, winning fewer than 30% of return points, and even in their clash last week in Paris, Tsitsipas only created two break chances in three sets.

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All-time, Tsitsipas breaks serve 14% of the time against the current top-10 on indoor hard and he’ll need a lot better to win this title again.

Medvedev has been something of an enigma this season, with only two titles (a 250 and a 500) in a disappointing year for the Russian where he lost in three of his five finals

His stats are similar for 2022 as they were in 2021: 87% holds of serve is the same as 2021, while 41% return points won is also the same as in 2021.

He’s down slightly on service points won in 2022 (67% compared to 69% in 2021) and breaks of serve were 30% in 2021 compared to 28% in 2022 and his win rate this year is 74% compared with 81% last season.

But his record against Djokovic, where he’s won four of the last seven completed matches (he got injured on the cusp of winning in Astana a month ago) and against Tsitsipas and Rublev makes me fancy him to win the group at a tempting 11/4.

On indoor hard Medvedev edges the head-to-head stats against Djokovic, despite losing two of the three completed matches.

The Russian has a 101 combined service points won/return points won total in the four matches (Djokovic 100) and Djokovic has only won 41% of his second serve points in those matches – where Djokovic has scored is in taking a big 57% of his break point chances (Medvedev only 38% of his opportunities).

So, I’m happy to take Medvedev, who’s won nine of his last 10 matches at the Finals, to win the group.

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Green Group

This looks the easier group to be in, with Rafa Nadal very rusty at the moment and Casper Ruud having a weak record on indoor hard, so opportunity knocks for alternate Taylor Fritz and the red-hot Felix Auger-Aliassime.

It all happens a bit too quickly for Ruud indoors, where he’s 11-13 all-time at main level and 5-5 in his last 10 matches, breaking serve only 14% of the time.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he did something against FAA in his opening match though, with the Canadian a bit too short in price after his fabulous form of the last month or so.



Ruud beat Felix easily on the Canadian’s home turf in Montreal in the summer and with debut nerves likely to be a factor with FAA I like Ruud’s chances of at least making that one close.

But it’s tough to see Ruud making the final of this tournament in these conditions and similarly Nadal, who, like Tsitsipas, could potentially end the year as world number one.

To do that, Nadal must win every match up until the final, so four from four is needed, and five from five if it’s Tsitsipas that makes the final from the other group. 

And that’s a tall order for a player that’s never won this title, in unsuitably quick conditions, and having played only one match since the US Open and just six since Wimbledon in the summer.

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He doesn’t sound optimistic about his chances either and I’m happy to overlook Rafa this week: “It’s true that for the last five months I didn’t spend enough days on the tour. I don’t even say competing on a tennis court; I say on the tour, practising with the guys. That’s what I need. I am going to try.”

The obvious pick for Green Group is Auger-Aliassime based on his recent form, but he still has much to prove against the elite players, with a 4-13 win/loss mark versus top-five ranked opponents.

In the last month he’s gone 16-1 win/loss, but only two of those matches were against top-20 ranked opposition and he went 1-1 in those matches, so he’s too short in price for me at around 6/1 to win the title and less than 2-1 to win the group.

Ruud’s weak indoor record and his 6-19 win/loss mark against top-10 ranked opponents makes him an unlikely winner of this title, so perhaps the alternate Taylor Fritz might be the one in this group.

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Fritz came in when Carlos Alcaraz withdrew injured and much depends on how he handles the pressure of playing in this elite event for the first time (and that also applies to FAA). 

The American has won four of his last seven matches at all levels against top-10 ranked opponents and he should have made that five from seven when he lost to a hobbled Nadal at Wimbledon. 

Indeed, only once in those seven matches has Fritz lost in straight sets (to Medvedev in Cincy) and if he handles the occasion and plays his best tennis he should enjoy the quick conditions.

I’m not sure I can see him winning the title, but 7/2 about him winning this group looks the bet in Green Group.

Conclusion

It’s always a tricky tournament to find any real value in, but I’ve taken a small one point double with BetVictor, who allow a group winners double (most other firms don’t allow it) on Fritz and Medvedev to win their groups at 14/1.

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