Betting Opens on Joe Biden Completing Full Term of Presidency
Article By
Last Updated: 
UK betting sites believe Joe Biden will complete his first term as US president but are refusing to push him ahead of Donald Trump in the race for the White House this year.
Mr Biden, 81, remains the outsider to win a second term despite the legal troubles that currently overshadow Mr Trump’s election campaign.
Former president Trump is currently in court for the first of four trials.
This one – a “hush money” trial regarding alleged payments to an adult film star before ether 2016 election – could result in Mr Trump being jailed.
And yet, he still leads Mr Biden in the polls and the odds as we inch towards the November 5 election.
Meanwhile, Mr Biden’s approval ratings have taken another hit over America’s handling of the war in Gaza.
The president is trying to use his country’s influence abroad but also needs to keep an eye on domestic concerns if he is to win votes in swing states.
And this is leading bookmakers to assume that he won’t win re-election this autumn.
Joe Biden Odds
Political betting sites price Mr Biden within a 45% to 50% band of probability. However, Mr Trump’s odds range from 47.6% to 52.6%.
That might not seem too dissimilar but it’s notable that no bookie has chosen to push Mr Biden past Evens.
This is important for bettors to be aware of because it shows just how concerned the markets are of Mr Biden’s chances of being elected.
Usually, an incumbent president would be soaring in the polls and odds right now, as voters only vote for change when they need to.
Enough Americans feel desperate enough that they are willing to vote for change in the 2024 US presidential election, even if that change is a return to a Trump administration.
The weight of bets is another factor the bookies have to consider when setting their odds.
Around 57% of all wagers in this market back Mr Trump for president. Mr Biden is carrying just 22.6% of the bets.
Mr Biden’s share has slowly improved in the last two months but not by enough to convince new betting sites to overturn their odds and make him favourite for the job.
Will Biden Beat Trump?
Of course, betting apps would ideally price both men at Evens in this contest and give them each a 50% stab at the Oval Office.
That’s because the US election right now looks to be a coin toss. Mr Trump is doing well in the polls but not well enough to crush his opponent.
If he loses one of his criminal trials he could lose widespread support, or could enjoy a leap in the polls.
Mr Biden, meanwhile, is simply trying to get through the day-to-day without any missteps.
Conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza are drawing attention away from domestic policy, but his VP Kamala Harris is stepping into that void.
A recent $100m injection into Detroit’s automobile industry is the sort of thing Ms Harris can oversee and pull in Democratic votes for the president.
The problem Mr Biden has is many Americans feel they have missed out on the country’s post-Covid economic recovery.
Mr Trump thrives on leading the “overlooked” people in America and Mr Biden is part of an untrusted political class.
That’s why, when Mr Trump is in the dock, he calls the criminal allegations against him a “political witch hunt”. Mr Biden can do nothing but keep getting on with the job.
The 2024 US election could be the closest in a long time. It may come down to two or three swing states that are flip-flopping between red and blue right now.
Economic pessimism means Mr Biden leads just one of six key states. He desperately needs to inspire faith in his administration and paint a positive picture for America over the coming four years.
If he doesn’t then Mr Trump will argue he is worth a shot. Many bettors already believe he’s on to a winning night this November and the bookies think so too.
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.
Updated by
Last Updated:
