How Long Will Rishi Sunak Last As UK Prime Minister?
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UK betting sites believe Rishi Sunak will avoid an insurrection this summer, but expect the prime minister to be out of office by the end of the year.
Mr Sunak oversaw the loss of 474 council seats in May’s local elections as voters flocked to Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
The results were to be expected but there had been rumblings that a rebellion could trigger had Mr Sunak’s losses tipped over 500. He avoided that humiliation.
Having dampened expectations for Tory success leading into May, there appears little appetite to gun for Mr Sunak in the post-election lull.
However, Suella Braverman fired one shot across the bows, saying the PM needs to change course before the general election.
And UK bookmakers think so too. They haven’t responded well to the local election results and believe Mr Sunak is still the big outsider to be prime minister after the general election.
And yet, they also don’t think anyone will challenge the PM for the party leadership.
Rishi Sunak Odds
Indeed, Mr Sunak is stuck in the middle of a maelstrom right now. A fair number of his parliamentary party colleagues - mostly backbenchers on the right of the party - want him gone.
However, they don’t have the numbers or the momentum yet to topple him.
Meanwhile, centrists are scrambling to boost the Conservatives’ poll ratings and pull votes back from Labour.
Yet they risk causing a civil war within the party over issues such as immigration, tax and public spending.
Mr Sunak is 13/2 with political betting sites to be the UK’s prime minister after the general election. By contrast, Sir Keir Starmer is 1/10 to lead Labour to victory.
Yet Coral also believe there is just an 11% likelihood that the Tories will take a leadership challenge to Mr Sunak this summer. Those odds of 1/8 suggest the prime minister won’t be toppled.
There are accusations that Mr Sunak is overseeing a zombie parliament. He cannot lean to the right without haemorrhaging votes.
He cannot lean to the centre without losing backbench support that keeps him in the job.
All the while Labour are flying in the polls with a 20-point lead over the Tories.
When Will Sunak Go?
Betting apps think it’s a case of when, not if, Mr Sunak loses his job. The most likely outcome is at the ballot box when he eventually calls a general election.
The odds currently suggest a November date is most likely at 4/5, with October at 4/1 and December at 6/1.
It’s unlikely Mr Sunak would call a snap election this summer off the back of poor local election results.
What’s more, the most unpopular decision a politician seeking re-election can make is to call a vote during the summer holidays.
In fact, the summer is more likely to witness a leadership challenge if, indeed, there is one at all.
Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch and Ms Braverman all have their eyes on the top job.
Another Conservative prime minister could be too much for voters, but MPs may feel it’s their last throw of the dice to reduce Labour’s poll lead.
It would be a massive gamble. A new leader now could return millions of voters back from Labour and Reform UK.
Or it could push loyalists away and run the risk of the Conservatives being a minor opposition party in the next parliament.
There’s no knowing what might happen and what’s clear is there is no control of the situation.
Mr Sunak is playing his premiership day by day, which is why a December election looks increasingly possible.
So long as he can stave off a rebellion, he will keep his job. Exactly what benefit that brings to his party remains unclear.
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