Donald Trump 2024 Odds: Former President Risks Slipping Behind Joe Biden
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UK betting sites may be about to flip the US presidential odds in favour of Joe Biden as Donald Trump’s campaign grinds to a halt in court.
Mr Trump has spent days in New York attending the hush-money trial regarding alleged payments to an adult movie star in the build-up to the 2016 election.
Bookmakers have so far resisted widening Trump’s odds beyond president Biden and most still make him the narrow favourite to win the election in November.
However, a growing number of bookies are teetering on flipping their prices, with Trump both unable to campaign while he spends his presidential war chest on legal fees.
Mr Biden, by contrast, is enjoying a boom in campaign funding and could outspend the GOP ahead of the November 5 vote. He is also able to hit the campaign trail early, while Mr Trump remains in court.
Donald Trump Odds
Right now, bookmakers like BoyleSports and 10Bet have Mr Trump at Evens to win the next election and Mr Biden at 11/10. The percentage difference is 50%-47.6% in Trump’s favour.
Those odds roughly reflect the current polls, which have the pair neck-and-neck on 44 points.
However, the political betting markets have to account for bettor preference. Around 58% of all wagers in this market back Mr Trump, while 22% side with the Democrat candidate.
That is why Mr Trump leads the betting despite facing four court cases this year.
Will Trump Beat Biden?
Trump’s odds and his poll ratings could dramatically change in the next few weeks depending on the outcome of the hush-money trial.
Should he lose, undecided voters may back fully away from him. The GOP would also need to figure out its plans, with Mr Trump all but sure to be the party nominee.
Should he win – or the trial collapses, which is more likely – then he will earn a massive boost in the polls. His base will grow and he will head into the summer as the favourite with betting apps to win the election.
That shows just how important this trial is for both the Dems and the Republicans. But it may not decide the election in itself.
There are still months to go before the November 5 vote and we are yet to hear of genuine policies from either candidate.
Mr Biden recently passed a multi-billion dollar aid package for Ukraine and the Middle East – a controversial move that Republicans tried to block.
He is also seeking to inject billions into infrastructure funding across the United States. Again, the Republicans don’t want to see more public spending.
Finances – both household and public – often become major issues during the presidential election.
If Mr Biden can keep the economy stable and offer hope that individuals will start feeling the benefit then he could well steal core swing states in autumn.
Right now Mr Trump has the edge on most of the seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Mr Biden’s response is to campaign in these states while his rival is stuck in court.
It’s quite possible that Mr Biden secures poll leads over Mr Trump in a handful of these swing states.
Come the summer, assuming Mr Trump is not imprisoned, the likes of Michigan and North Carolina will become key battlegrounds for both candidates.
But the Trump team cannot rely on personality alone to win this contest. Mr Trump will need to outline some difficult policies, particularly around abortion, international conflicts and public spending in order to attract floating voters.
Right now he isn’t doing that. He’s running a campaign primarily on personality and his argument that the government is persecuting a rebel.
That sentiment can only stretch so far. He has work to do to convince Americans he deserves a second chance in the White House.
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