Tour de France Betting Tips: Get Long Odds On Our Two TDF Predictions
TDF Betting Tips:
- Lennard Kämna – KOM classification (Each-Way) – 26.0 with Ladbrokes
- Patrick Konrad – KOM classification – (Each-Way) 80.0 with Bet365
In the original Tour de France preview I mentioned how the “mini Roubaix” stage would be controversial.
It certainly did not disappoint and most betting sites now have Primož Roglič at 26.0 to win the Tour de France – a huge drift from 5.5 before the race started.
He’s currently the fourth favourite, but last Wednesday was a day to forget for Jumbo-Visma.
A stray safety hay bale caused the crash and alas Roglič went down, for the number of races the Slovenian has won he also has terrible luck.
He suffered from a dislocated shoulder on the day but managed to finish the stage over two minutes down from Tadej Pogačar who remains favourite in the outright Tour de France betting at 1.40.
Roglič is now 3.50 with many bookmakers to finish in the top three. Jumbo-Visma’s tactics will decide if this is a good bet.
They remain in second in the general classification with Jonas Vingegaard (39 seconds behind Pogačar). The majority of his time was also lost on stage five, after he suffered a puncture and was forced to change his bike at least three times.
Pogačar took advantage of their misfortunes and has displayed dominance ever since – winning stages six and seven.
The two-time Tour de France winner is a machine but Vingegaard is the strongest from the other GC riders and can put Pogačar under pressure.
Do Jumbo-Visma try to get both riders on the podium by attacking with Roglič or are all their eggs in the Vingegaard basket?
They have many cards to play and with the current heatwave hitting Europe, they could target one of Pogačar’s very few potential weaknesses – riding in extreme heat.
He makes no secret over preferring cooler weather and Vingegaard could take advantage of this.
I would rather bet Vingegaard outright at 3.50 with cycling betting sites over Roglič to finish in the top three as he may turn into Jumbo Visma’s super domestique.
TDF Betting Rollercoaster
Cycling betting can be a crazy ride and Aleksandr Vlasov has also been plagued by bad luck. I made him the each-way poke at 20.0 with Ladbrokes in my pre-race TDF preview but he’s now 250.0 in places.
On stage six he was the victim of a crash, suffering from cuts and lower back pain over the last few stages. This now sees him 3 minutes 12 seconds behind Pogačar in the standings and his GC fight looks over.
INEOS Grenadiers are in a healthy position. Behind Pogačar, they have Geraint Thomas at 1 minute 17 seconds and Adam Yates a further eight seconds back (third and fourth in the GC respectively).
Pogačar may come under a bombardment of Jumbo-Visma and INEOS Grenadiers attacks and Yates could take advantage of the right move at the right time when we hit the Alps.
His issue is the 40km time trial in the final week where he will lose a lot of time to Pogačar, whereas Thomas can time trial.
In hindsight, I underrated his Tour de Suisse performance in June and his consistency keeps him in the hunt. Thomas is a more solid bet than Yates to finish on the podium.
Cycling betting offers different markets including the points classification and the King of the Mountains classification.
Wout Van Aert has been exceptional and as long as he survives, I cannot see him losing the green jersey. He is currently 1.11 with many betting apps – a lot shorter than the original 1.66 available in the pre-TDF odds.
KOM Classification Odds
The KOM classification is more intriguing and if Pogačar keeps mopping up stage wins, he may wear the polka dot jersey again in Paris.
However, I’m hopeful the peloton decide to battle the GC behind breakaways over the mountain stages ahead.
UAE Team Emirates do not want to see Pogačar in the red whilst in the strongest position and will be happy to see riders much further down the GC enter breakaways – similar to Sunday’s stage.
I now look towards BORA-hansgrohe riders to target KOM points. Lennard Kämna is a breakaway king and was unlucky not to win stage seven.
He can now target more breakaways and could pick up KOM points along the way – 25.0 with Bet365 is big for the German.
Fellow teammate and countryman, Maximilian Schachmann is 150.0 but a couple of crashes have hindered his chances.
Finally, Patrick Konrad hit Sunday’s breakaway group and if he joins Kämna in further breakaways they could work together for KOM points and stage wins, the Austrian is 80.0.
There were signs of French riders making KOM moves on Sunday, especially from Pierre Latour, but I still have faith in Romain Bardet and Warren Barguil. They are now available at bigger prices in the Tour de France odds.
Bardet would need to lose time on the GC but Barguil is showing signs of hitting breakaways and both would be strong in a KOM hunt and it seems we cannot discount Thibaut Pinot just yet! He has now shortened to 3.50 favourite in the TDF KOM betting.
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