Betting Advice for Monday Night Football: Rams at 49ers

Article By John Ryan

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John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

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Last Updated: 2024 Mar 14

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Here are my best NFL bets to make for Monday Night Football.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Levi Stadium, 8:15 p.m. ET, TSN1/3/5 and RDS2

Line: 49ers –2 | Total: 42.5 points

The line in this game between the Rams (2-1 straight up, 1-2 against the spread, 1-2 Over-Under) and 49ers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 Over-Under) opened with the 49ers favoured by 2.5 points. That 65% of the bets have been going on the Rams has forced the line to dip to 2. 

The total opened at 47.5 points and has since declined to 42.5 points. So far, 70% of the bets placed have been on the Under, but I believe betting action will remain balanced between Over and Under bets at this level and 42.5 points will be more than likely the closing price.

The Rams are the defending Super Bowl Champions, but to repeat is rare. The 49ers lost their quarterback Trey Lance to a season-ending leg injury. Still, their backup Jimmy Garoppolo has significant NFL experience and has a second chance to earn his way back to being a starter in the NFL. They are also without All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams, who is out with a high ankle sprain.

Trying to contain the Rams' pass rush, led by defensive end Aaron Donald, will be a monumental task for the backup Colton McKivitz.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Rams in this matchup.

• Home favourites, like the 49ers, scoring 17 or fewer points per game, are a money-burning 21-33-2 ASTS for 39% winning bets over the last five seasons.
• The 49ers, when priced as a home favourite and coming off a loss in which they scored 13 or fewer points, are 9-14 ATS for 39% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
• The Rams are 12-3 ATS coming off a divisional game over the last three seasons.

I am betting the Rams in this matchup as a 2-point underdog at BetMGM.

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Quick Kicks

These are my best prop bets picks to tonight's game. For the season, player prop bets are 18-7, making $655 per $50 bet.

• Bet the Rams Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 passing touchdowns 1.71 at DraftKings.
• Bet the 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo over 28.5 passes 1.77 at Caesars.
• Bet the 49ers place kicker Robbie Gold Under 1.5 made field goals 1.77 at BetMGM.
• Bet the Rams place kicker Matt Gay Over 6.5 points 1.92 at Unibet.
• Bet the Rams Tyler Higbee Over 4.5 receptions 2.10 at PointsBet.

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John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

Read Full Bio

John Ryan

Last Updated:   2024 Mar 14

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