Betting Analysis and Predictions for NHL Games, April 1
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Tonight surprises with a medium seven-game slate. The debut night of April is expected to start fierce as Ontario sports betting begins in earnest next week.
Getting into the month the regular season ends means even more spotlight on Canadian teams. Let’s plunge deeper into this Friday schedule.
Ottawa Senators vs. Detroit Red Wings
The Ottawa Senators scored the first goal in Nashville on Tuesday night but could not find an answer for Michael McCarron. They allowed four unanswered goals en route to a 4-1 defeat.
They did have their chances though. Ottawa amassed 37 shots against Juuse Saros and had higher-quality scoring opportunities. The pucks just did not go into the net. Could playing a team that gives up goals in bunches be a panacea of sorts tonight?
Better yet, does Ottawa carry value?
This is where we jack up the intensity. Ottawa is facing a Detroit team that gave up 11 goals to Pittsburgh, five to the Rangers and Islanders, and has given up 61 goals in their past 12 games. That includes two complete flukes in Vancouver and Tampa Bay of all places.
Now, some other numbers lie a little less. Take the body of work here. When looking at sports wagering, that deceives the least. Detroit allows 3.82 goals per game and has the league’s worst penalty kill (72.1%). If a team is going to knock Ottawa out of their shooting woes (8.5% - 30th), it might just be Detroit.
While both teams are just playing out the string this month, Ottawa does have some extra motivation. They are playing for their jobs and a new potential owner. That is the reality. There are quite a few good pieces on this team and why their implied winning percentage (32%) should not be that low. Their moneyline number is right around 2.00 which is plus-money.
Also, the Over is teetering around 6 to 6.5. If one can get it at 6, that is great. Do not try this at 6.5 if possible. Plus, that number is not a big difference for the safety of the Push. Both teams are as capable of an offensive dud as scoring 3+ goals with ease.
This one trend is odd but has to be mentioned. Ottawa is 5-1 this season when the team they face gives up five or more goals the previous game. NHL wagering against Detroit is at the very least more profitable than not in this recent stretch.
Let’s look at one more game with a Canadian team tonight.
St. Louis Blues vs. Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers entertain the St. Louis Blues and both teams come in on modest two-game winning streaks. This is while the Oilers have enjoyed a slightly better run over their last 10 games. Edmonton is 7-2-1 in that span while St. Louis is 5-4-1.
Sports wagering gets intriguing here because of the plethora of options. Consider that Edmonton features one of the most dynamic power plays in the last decade. This game is a rare matchup of two top-five units. St. Louis ranks a touch higher than Edmonton but the Oilers at home are the tops in the league. It buoys their 22-12 home mark.
It never hurts having Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on one’s power-play along with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. There are some avenues to look at here. For one, McDavid crossed the 100th point plateau earlier this week. Draisaitl is at 97 with an outside chance of getting to 100. The forward also stands at 49 goals on the season. Auston Matthews already hit 50 earlier this week.
The anytime goal prop for Draisaitl is a slight underdog on Friday with a number ranging from 2.05 to 2.15. Amusingly, McDavid is near that mark ,too. One of the tantalizing odds boosts might be looking towards a Draisaitl goal and Edmonton winning in regulation (2.85).
Finally, the Over has to be in play here as well. With Mike Smith in goal, adventurous times can be possible. Eight of the previous nine Edmonton games have exceeded seven or more goals total. At any rate, expect anything but dull from the Oilers on Friday night.
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