Betting Analysis and Predictions for NHL Games, March 30
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The balanced schedule over the final month of the NHL regular season will keep things intriguing for NHL betting.
Normally, Wednesdays vary in slate size but are usually five games or less. Tonight, there are six contests on the docket.
With a micro-focus on Canadian teams, shorter slates become a little more intense, especially this time of year. Two of our spotlights are on teams currently outside a playoff spot. Their urgency is already up. Let’s preview what might happen next.
Winnipeg Jets vs. Buffalo Sabres
The Winnipeg Jets waltz into Buffalo to face an also-surging Sabres team.
That sounds strange to say. However, Buffalo is 6-2-2 in their past 10 games, while Winnipeg is 7-3 during that span. Both teams have won three straight games. The concern is the moneyline.
Does it have value?
This is a scenario where Winnipeg comes in as a 1.62 favorite to simply win in Buffalo on Wednesday. That is not a guarantee, given how Buffalo is keeping games close throughout March.
Now, the idea is to take some of the data at face value. Buffalo games have seen an average combined goal total of 8.5 over the past four contests. That’s 11,9, 7, and 7 for those scoring at home.
Some other statistics help here also. Buffalo and Winnipeg both allow over three goals a game. That could be considered innocent enough.
On the other hand, both teams suffer from uneven penalty kills. Buffalo and Winnipeg are right around 75%. Winnipeg ranks 26th and Buffalo at 27th. In terms of minors taken, both teams come right in around the middle of the pack.
The focus does come back to the Over. Buffalo games have seen this trend lately where the Over has gone 6-3-1. Overall on the season, it is 32-30. Even Winnipeg is 34-28 when it comes to the Over. That is not entirely rare but funny enough, the synergy in the stats is uncanny. Winnipeg has also seen the Over go 6-3-1 lately.
Keep in mind, Kyle Connor and Nate Schmidt have both tested positive for COVID and are out for tonight’s game against Buffalo. That being said …
Winnipeg keeps on scoring behind the might of Nikolaj Ehlers and especially Mark Scheifele. Scheifele (nine points in the last five games) will not win the Rocket Richard award but he does have 41 goals on the season. One fun prop bet may just be that anytime goal. Take a look around as one or two betting sites may have a boost.
There is one more game to consider on Wednesday night which focuses on a team north of the 49th parallel.
St. Louis Blues vs. Vancouver Canucks
The Vancouver Canucks and St. Louis Blues are in a big fight for a playoff spot. Vancouver comes in with 73 points and St. Louis has 81 points. The Blues have played three fewer games than the Canucks.
Canadian sports betting can be a wild ride. Most would assume looking towards St. Louis for a power-play goal is a sure thing. But, don’t consider that. Though Vancouver comes in with the second-worst penalty-kill in the league, it takes penalties at a rate of fewer than eight minutes per 60 at home. That ranks as the eighth-fewest in the NHL.
Eventually, there will be more focus on individualized matchups but a little tidbit on Wednesday here. Vancouver has a clear advantage with goaltending and St. Louis is searching for their confidence a bit.
Both teams are sputtering around .500 over their past 10 games. Even the Over has gone in opposite directions for both teams. St. Louis games have seen a seven out of 10 connect rate (Vancouver just three of 10).
There are two areas to consider betting at least in this game. The Over is at an even (1.91). Now, that 6.0 can leave room for a push.
Would one consider Vancouver for a team Over if their goal total stays at 2.5 goals? That is one avenue. The other focuses on hedging either with the puckline or moneyline.
Vancouver is 39-29 on the puckline and even on the moneyline. That even could be worth a look.
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