Betting Analysis and Predictions: Minnesota Timberwolves at Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors look to win their fourth consecutive game and top off a terrific homestand when they play host to the Minnesota Timberwolves at 7:30 p.m. ET tonight.

These two teams met on Feb. 16 and Toronto won 103-91 as a 12-point road underdog.

So how should you spend your NBA betting money on this one? Let’s take a look.

How The Teams Match Up

The Timberwolves are the second-highest scoring team in the Association, averaging 115.4 points per game. They like to get out on the fast break off missed opponent shots and rank fourth in that category, averaging 15.1 points per game.

They live and die by the 3-pointer, ranking first in both 3-point shot attempts at 41.4 per game and made shots at 14.7 per game. But, they rank 13th by making 35.5% of those shots.

Toronto gets a lot of second chance scoring opportunities because of its outstanding offensive rebounding, which ranks second at 13.5 boards per game.

It also ranks second by getting an offensive rebound on 28.5% of its missed shots. As a result, it ranks second in opponent defensive rebound percentage at 71.5%.

The Raptors’ defense will be the X-factor in this matchup, knowing they make terrific game adjustments that can help erase deficits before the third quarter is even half completed.

They rank fourth in the league by allowing 26 third-quarter points per game. If the Raptors are trailing at the half by fewer than 10 points, that could present a live, in-game betting opportunity on them.

What do the Analytics Tell Us?

Toronto is in good position to earn a straight-up and against the spread win over the Timberwolves.

The Raptors are 26-13-1 against the spread when facing a team with a winning record this season and 9-1 ATS when facing teams that are making an average of 14 or more 3-point shots in games played this season.

They are 25-11 ATS after one or more games have resulted in the Over wager cashing in.

They are 28-12-2 ATS coming off a win of six or fewer points in games played over the past three seasons.

I like the Raptors, currently a 2.5-point favorite to win straight-up and cover the spread.