Betting Analysis and Predictions: San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
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Can Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers walk off the SoFi Stadium Field and into the sunset with a Super Bowl Ring?
The Green Bay Packers organization, their fans, and their 38-year-old quarterback are fully aware that the clock is ticking, and this may be the end of the Aaron Rodgers era.
If the Packers can get a win against the San Francisco 49ers tonight, Rodgers would lead the Packers to their sixth NFC Championship game and would face the winner of the Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Bucs game being played on Sunday.
Game Conditions and Lines
The temperatures will be in single digits for the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff and Lambeau Field and the Packer fans will be primed after a long day of tailgating on the frozen tundra. Will it be cold enough to halt a red-hot 49ers team that has reached full strength and arguably playing the best brand of football on both sides of the ball in the NFC?
The NFL betting markets have seen a wave of confidence backing the Packers. After the line opened with Green Bay as a 4.5-point home favorite, there has been a steady stream of Packer bettors forcing the market to reprice the Packers as 5.5-point home favorites.
There is a rogue –6 point price showing up at WynnBET with Pinnacle, Heritage, and BetMGM all at –5.5 points.
Of the bets placed as of early Friday morning, 71% of tickets placed, and 68% of the money has been bet on the Packers.
The total has seen the greatest amount of betting diversity since opening at 47.5 points. Currently, 56% of the tickets wagered have been on the over, yet 75% of the money wagered has been on the under.
This type of betting flow puts the public on the over while the sharps are betting the under rather aggressively, pushing the market modestly lower to a current price of 47 points.
How These Teams Are Faring
Since Week 12 of the regular season, the 49ers averaged a league-high 7.7 yards per pass play. The Green Bay Packers were third-best at 7.2 YPPA. Then, examine how strong the 49ers' defense has been all season, coupled with one of the best offensive minds in the game today in Kyle Shannahan and the 49ers become an extremely frightening team to any opponent and their fan base.
The playing status of defensive end Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner remains unclear and the assumption is they will be a game-time decision. From all the sources I have consulted, I believe both will be in the starting lineup.
49ers at Packers Pick
I am leaning toward backing the 49ers in this matchup because they are playing extremely well and with more winning confidence than at any other time this season.
Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the regular season and playoffs that committed no more than one turnover in their previous game and face an opponent that lost the battle of the turnovers in their previous game has earned a highly profitable 30-16-1 against the spread record, good for 65% winning bets spanning the past five seasons. In playoff games, this angle has produced a 4-1-1 ATS record for 80% winners over the last five seasons.
Looks like a sprinkle on the moneyline betting the 49ers to win the game is in good order, too.
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