How to Bet the Toronto Maple Leafs in Their Back-To-Back Games This Weekend
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The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to play on back-to-back nights starting with Saturday’s match at the Montreal Canadiens. On Sunday, the Maple Leafs play host the Florida Panthers.
Toronto is in fourth place, having earned 85 points, in the Eastern Conference. It is expected to have no trouble with Montreal, which is in dead last with 44 points in the East.
However, Sunday’s game is against the first-place Panthers, who have earned 92 points.
So, how does this affect your NHL betting?
How do NHL teams Do When Playing on Back-to-back Nights?
Teams playing on back-to-back nights this season have gone 126-192 straight-up for 40% wins. Those teams have lost $6,585 for the $100 per game bettor using the moneyline for a terrible -16.1% return on investment.
Betting against teams playing back-to-back nights has averaged a -124 moneyline favourite and made the $100 bettor a sizable profit of $4,053 for an 8.08% return on investment.
Diving deeper into the analytics, let’s add a few varying situations to see if we can bring out more profitable betting intelligence for the game on Sunday.
NHL teams playing on back-to-back nights at their home ice are 21-30 straight-up, averaging a -106.7 moneyline favourite, and losing $1,159 for the $100 bettor.
Betting against these ‘hungover’ hosts playing on their second of back-to-backs has seen them average a -106.6 moneyline wager and making the $100 bettor a profit of $841 and a nice 11.7% return on investment.
How About the Puck Line and the Total?
NHL teams playing on back-to-back nights and using the -1.5 Puck Line if our team is favoured on the moneyline has averaged a +157 line, resulting in a 145-269 record, spanning the past 15 seasons. It has produced a 37-83 record for 30.8% wins and a horrid -35.8% return on investment this season.
If our team is the moneyline underdog, using the +1.5 Puck Line has averaged a -182.7 line for a 361-238 record and 60.3% wins, making the $100 bettor a $21,789 profit and 51.8% return on investment spanning the past 15 seasons. This season, it has produced a 110-88 record for 55.6% wins, but losing the $100 bettor a modest $287 and a –0.47% return on investment. So far, we have an angle to bet on the home favoruite in the second of back-to-backs using the Puck Line.
Now, let’s dive into the game results over the past three seasons and see how teams playing on back-to-backs at home and coming off a win of two or more goals have done.
I am assuming the Maple Leafs beat the Canadiens by a margin of at least two goals. So, now we are starting to get the betting opportunity identified.
Teams coming off a 2 or more-goal win and playing the second of back-to-backs at home, being favoured and using the Puck Line, has earned a 22-17 Puck Line record, averaging +146.2 line and making the $100 bettor a $3,760 profit and a 92% return on investment.
So, the conditions are if the Maple Leafs defeat the Canadiens by two or more goals and are priced as a favourite against the Panthers on Sunday, the bet to make is the Maple Leafs using the Puck Line.
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