Monday Night Football Picks and Betting Advice

Monday Night Football Picks and Betting Advice
© USA Today

We got off to a good start with Week 1 picks, winning both top-rated best bets with the Tampa Bay beating Dallas 19-3 and easily covering the spread as a 2.5 road favorites and the New York Giants getting +5.5 points in their come-from-behind win over the Tennessee Titans.  

Let’s look to add another winner in tonight’s marquee matchup between Seattle and the Denver Broncos as former Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson takes on his former team and coach Pete Carroll.

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Denver at Seattle

Today, 8:15 ET, TSN

Line: Broncos -7 | Total: 44 points

Given a line favoring the Broncos by seven points and a total of 44 points implies a Broncos 25.5-18.5 win. 

My predictive model shows a high probability that the Broncos will score 20 or fewer points and have the same or more turnovers than the Seahawks.

  • Since 1990, the Broncos are 20-11 Under for 64% wins when priced as a road favorite, scoring 20 or fewer points and having the same or more turnovers as the host.
  • Since 1990, the Seahawks are 18-10 Under the total for 64% winning bets when priced as a home dog, allowing 20 or fewer points, and having the same or fewer turnovers than the guest.

I am betting the Under 44 points as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

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A Few Player Prop Considerations

  • Broncos place kicker Brandon McManus Over 1.5 field goals made 1.83 at Caesars.
  • Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson Under 22.5 completions 1.97 at Caesars.
  • Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith Over 10.5 rushing yards 1.91 at DraftKings.

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