NFL Betting Advice for Thursday Night Football, Sept. 22

Article By John Ryan

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John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

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Last Updated: 2024 Mar 14

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Let's look at Thursday's game between these longtime rivals to help with your NFL betting.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime 

Line: Browns -4.5 | Total: 38 points

The preseason line on this game had the Steelers as a 2.5-point underdog with a total of 40.5 points. 

The betting community has accounted for 60% of the tickets and 78% of the money betting the Under, forcing the market to dip to 38 points. The spread has moved and the Steelers are now a 4.5-point underdog.

What Do the Predictive Models Say?

A line favouring the Browns by 4.5 points and a total of 38 points suggests a Browns 21.25 to 16.75 win.

My predictive model shows a high probability that the Browns will not score more than 20 points and will be outgained on the ground.

• The Browns are 0-7 SU and 2-5 against the spread (ATS) for 29% winning bets when scoring 21 or more points and getting outgained on the ground.
• Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is 38-39 SU, 44-27-6 ATS for 62% and 31-45-1 Over-Under, good for 59% winning Under bets.
• Tomlin is a profitable 12-9 SU, 15-6 ATS for 71.4% winning bets and 9-12 Over-Under.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy

I am betting on the Steelers with 50% of my average bet size pre-flop at +4.5 points and then will look to get 25% more at +6.5 and the last amount of 25% at +9.5 points during the first half only. 

There simply is not enough time for this strategy to work effectively in the second half because there is such a short window to be correct and win those bets. 

So, if you are a $100 bettor, the strategy is to bet $50 before kickoff (pre-flop) at +4.5 points and then add the two remaining $25 amounts at the Bills +6.5 and +9.5 points.

Quick Kicks

Some player prop bets to consider in this game.

• Bet the Steelers Chase Claypool Over 3.5 receptions -140 at DraftKings.
• Bet the Browns Kareem Hunt Over 2.5 receptions +118 at BetRivers.
• Bet the Browns kicker Cade York Over 6.5 points +114 at Caesars.

We've started 2-1 on player prop bets for the season, making $84 per $50 bet.

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John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

Read Full Bio

John Ryan

Last Updated:   2024 Mar 14

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