NFL Betting Advice for Thursday Night Football, Sept. 22

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime 

Line: Browns -4.5 | Total: 38 points

The preseason line on this game had the Steelers as a 2.5-point underdog with a total of 40.5 points. 

The betting community has accounted for 60% of the tickets and 78% of the money betting the Under, forcing the market to dip to 38 points. The spread has moved and the Steelers are now a 4.5-point underdog.

What Do the Predictive Models Say?

A line favouring the Browns by 4.5 points and a total of 38 points suggests a Browns 21.25 to 16.75 win.

My predictive model shows a high probability that the Browns will not score more than 20 points and will be outgained on the ground.

• The Browns are 0-7 SU and 2-5 against the spread (ATS) for 29% winning bets when scoring 21 or more points and getting outgained on the ground.
• Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is 38-39 SU, 44-27-6 ATS for 62% and 31-45-1 Over-Under, good for 59% winning Under bets.
• Tomlin is a profitable 12-9 SU, 15-6 ATS for 71.4% winning bets and 9-12 Over-Under.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy

I am betting on the Steelers with 50% of my average bet size pre-flop at +4.5 points and then will look to get 25% more at +6.5 and the last amount of 25% at +9.5 points during the first half only. 

There simply is not enough time for this strategy to work effectively in the second half because there is such a short window to be correct and win those bets. 

So, if you are a $100 bettor, the strategy is to bet $50 before kickoff (pre-flop) at +4.5 points and then add the two remaining $25 amounts at the Bills +6.5 and +9.5 points.

Quick Kicks

Some player prop bets to consider in this game.

• Bet the Steelers Chase Claypool Over 3.5 receptions -140 at DraftKings.
• Bet the Browns Kareem Hunt Over 2.5 receptions +118 at BetRivers.
• Bet the Browns kicker Cade York Over 6.5 points +114 at Caesars.

We've started 2-1 on player prop bets for the season, making $84 per $50 bet.