NHL: Picks & Preview for tonight’s Leafs vs Sabres, Red Wings vs Avalanche Games

Article By Mark Keast

Last Updated: 2024 Mar 6

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Leafs Look to Bounce Back

The Maple Leafs (35-18-8-78, 3^rd in the Atlantic Division) face-off against the Buffalo Sabres (29-29-4-62 points, 6^th in the Atlantic Division) tonight at Scotiabank Arena in the third of four matchups between the clubs this season. Toronto has posted a 0-2-0 record against the Sabres during the 2023-24 season while losing three-consecutive games against Buffalo.

NHL Schedule: Game Details

	Date	Time	Location	How to Watch
Leafs vs. Sabres	Mar 6, 2024	7:00 p.m. EST	Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON	TV: Sportsnet; Radio: Sportsnet 590
Red Wings vs. Avalanche	Mar 6, 2024	9:30 p.m. EST	Ball Arena, Denver, CO	TNT

Game 1: Leafs vs. Sabres Insights

The Leafs are coming off a 4-1 loss to the Boston Bruins Monday, a playoff-style statement game going in that more than any other game this season revealed the fault lines on their roster.

Ilya Samsonov (15-5-5, two shutouts, 3.23 GAA, .883 SV%) is listed as the probable starter tonight, no surprise with his strong play post-Christmas, plus the fact Joseph Woll looked a little leaky in the game against the Bruins. The Sabres are expected to go with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (19-16-2, five shutouts, 2.46 GAA, .914 SV%).

D Mark Giordano (concussion) and D Conor Timmins (illness) are out for the Leafs. C David Kampf (illness) will be a game time decision, The Athletic reports. D Erik Johnson is listed as day-to-day for the Sabres. D Mattias Samuelsson and RW Jack Quinn are both on injured reserve.

🏒 Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Sabres at DraftKings 🏒

The Leafs typically have trouble with the Sabres, a team that always gets jacked up to play their traditional rivals just 90 miles north up the QEW. The Sabres won 9-3 the last time these teams met.

The Leafs power play, while second in the NHL (27.8%), has slipped of late – 0-for-9 in their last four games. Buffalo ranks 20^th in the NHL in penalty kill (78.8 per cent). However, the Leafs’ penalty kill has also been in the doldrums all season (77.7 per cent, 21st in the NHL). Buffalo’s power play is 26^th, at 17 per cent efficiency.

Buffalo also lost their last game – 5-2 to Winnipeg Sunday night.

Player Props

If you’re into online betting, according to FanDuel, most bet player props are Player to Record 3+ Shots on Goal Bobby McMann (2.65), Anytime Goal Scorer Auston Matthews (1.77), and Player to Record 4+ Shots on Goal McCann (5.15).

At BetMGM, Matthews to Score Anytime Goal (1.77), Matthews to Score Over 1.5 Points (2.50) and Matthews to Score 1^st Goal (8.00) are leading the way. No surprise, since the NHL’s leading scorer hasn’t had one in two games.

Game 2: Red Wings vs. Avalanche Insights

The Red Wings (33-22-6-72, 4^th in the Atlantic Division), losers of two straight, are in Colorado tonight to take on the Avalanche (38-20-5-81, 3^rd in Central Division).

Nathan MacKinnon, tied for the league scoring lead, with Tampa’s Nikita Kucherov, at 105 points, had two goals in their last game, a 5-0 win Monday night over Chicago.

🏒 Bet on Red Wings vs. Avalanche at FanDuel 🏒

C Dylan Larkin is out for the Wings – a big loss for them. RW Valeri Nichushkin is expected to play tonight after being out of the lineup due to personal reasons, according to The-Rink.com. D Josh Manson is day-to-day.

Player Props

On the NHL sports betting front, according to FanDuel, Anytime Goal Scorer Nathan MacKinnon (1.95), Player to Record 5+ Shots on Goal MacKinnon (1.94), Anytime Goal Scorer Patrick Kane (2.85) are most bet player props as of this morning.

At BetMGM, it’s MacKinnon to Score Anytime Goal (2.00), MacKinnon Over 1.5 Points (1.87), and MacKinnon Over 4.5 Shots (1.85) as most bet player props so far.

Our NHL Picks Today

Last night was a rough night on the projection side, on the NBA front, so we’re going with safe bets for tonight. The Leafs, led by Matthews, and their power play, are going to beat the Sabres at home, so take the Moneyline at BetMGM.

Also, take the Avalanche ATS at PointsBet. Colorado needs a win to pull even with Winnipeg for second in the Western Conference, and a win tonight would put them just two points behind the first-place Dallas Stars.

	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
BetMGM	Leafs 1.55, Sabres 2.50	Leafs -1.5 (2.25), Sabres +1.5 (1.65)	6.5; Over 1.91; Under 1.91
PointsBet Canada	Red Wings 2.75, Avalanche 1.48	Red Wings +1.5 (1.71), Avalanche -1.5 (2.15)	6.5; Over 1.83; Under 2.00