Toronto Blue Jays Make Risky Offseason Move, How Does it Affect Their Odds?
As the start of spring training gets closer, the Toronto Blue Jays signing reliever Chad Green to a two-year contract last week looks great on paper.
At age 31, a 6-foot-3, 215-pound righthander had 99 strikeouts and a 3.12 ERA in 83.2 innings pitching for the New York Yankees in 2021, and had a 3.00 ERA, 15 IP and 16 Ks before undergoing Tommy John surgery.
For the MLB betting players among us, what does this latest signing do for how to bet?
Health is Key for Green's Success with Toronto
If Green can come back healthy at mid or the second half of the season, that’s a big addition to the Jays' bullpen ahead of closer Jordan Romano. Green’s fastball sits near 95 mph, with a sweeping curveball as his second main pitch.
Twelve of those appearances with the Yankees in 2021 were two innings or more – an interesting option for the Jays with their fifth spot in the starting rotation still a topic of discussion. The Jays also added reliever Erik Swanson in a trade with the Seattle Mariners for Teoscar Hernandez, which further muscles up their middle innings options.
There’s been a lot written on the uniqueness of the $8.5 million deal Green signed with the Jays, factoring in the injury uncertainty. Keep in mind the Jays have another pitcher out after Tommy John surgery as well – SP Hyun-Jin Ryu, who says he is targeting a July return to the rotation after undergoing the procedure last June. Green also had his surgery in June.
It’s a big “if” with both players. Fans of a certain vintage will remember the signing of closer B.J. Ryan in 2005 to a huge contract and then saw his steady decline after Tommy John surgery.
Blue Jays Accomplished Their Offseason Goals
So the summary of all this is the Jays went into the off-season looking to strengthen their team defence, bolster their pitching while getting more left-handed hitters and balance in their hitting attack. Swanson, Green, outfielder and left-handed hitting Daulton Varsho, CF and left-handed hitting Kevin Kiermaier, 1B/DH and left-handed hitting Brandon Belt - they’ve gone a long way in accomplishing that.
The Jays open their spring training schedule on Feb. 25 on the road against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
For us, the defence of SS Bo Bichette, the health of RF George Springer, that open fifth starter spot, the health uncertainty of Green and Ryu, and the great, tantalizing unknown that is fireballer Nate Pearson, are all big question marks.
Oddsmakers haven’t budged that much on the Jays for months now. PointsBet Canada has the Blue Jays at 15.0 to win the World Series. Houston is at the top, at 7.0, followed by the Yankees (7.5), Dodgers (8.5), Mets (8.5), Braves (11.0), Padres (11.0), then the Jays. They have the Yankees at 2.05 to win the AL East, followed by the Jays at 2.85.
Proline+ has the Jays at 11.0 to win the World Series, following the Astros (7.0), Dodgers (8.0), Mets (8.0), Yankees (8.0), and the Braves (10.0). The Yankees are at 2.0 to win the Al East, followed by the Jays at 2.75.
